Tree-ring based February–April precipitation reconstruction for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, southeastern China
Tree-ring based February–April precipitation reconstruction for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, southeastern China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.05.006
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发表时间：
2015-08
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Jiangfeng Shi;Huayu Lu;Jinbao Li;Shiyuan Shi;Shuang‐ye Wu;Xin-yuan Hou;Lingling Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jiangfeng Shi;Huayu Lu;Jinbao Li;Shiyuan Shi;Shuang‐ye Wu;Xin-yuan Hou;Lingling Li
2-4月干旱对中国东南部地区的农业和社会经济产生了强烈影响，但由于仪器记录的缺乏，尚未对其长期变化进行评估。在这项研究中，我们报告了中国东南部仙霞山脉一个陡峭、低海拔、土层薄的地点的 168 年树木年轮宽度年表。与现有的大多对温度敏感的年表相反，该年表包含强烈的2-4月降水信号，表明基于树木年轮的中国东南部降水重建具有巨大的潜力。重建解释了 1951 年至 2012 年期间 47.8% 的工具方差。全面重建表明，1856-2013年期间存在3个干旱期（1873-1896、1924-1971、1995-2012）和2个湿润期（1856-1872、1972-1994）。 2011 年的极端干旱在过去 168 年来并非史无前例，最近的严重干旱可能是地区 2 月至 4 月降水年代际变化的一部分。我们的研究结果还表明，中国东南部2-4月降水受热带太平洋气候系统，特别是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的影响很大。
February–April drought strongly affects agriculture and socio-economics in southeastern China, yet its long-term variability has not been assessed due to the shortness of instrumental records. In this study, we reported a 168-year tree-ring width chronology from a steep, low-elevation site with thin soil layers in the Xianxia Mountains, southeastern China. Contrary to the existing chronologies that are mostly temperature sensitive, this chronology contained a strong February–April precipitation signal, indicating great potential for tree-ring based precipitation reconstructions in southeastern China. The reconstruction explained 47.8% of the instrumental variance during 1951–2012. The full reconstruction indicated that there were 3 dry periods (1873–1896, 1924–1971, 1995–2012) and 2 wet periods (1856–1872, 1972–1994) during 1856–2013. The extreme drought in 2011 was not unprecedented for the past 168 years, and the recent severe droughts may be part of interdecadal variations in regional February–April precipitation. Our results also suggested that February–April precipitation in southeastern China was highly influenced by the tropical Pacific climate system, in particular El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).