NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES GLOBAL IMBALANCES AND CURRENCY WARS AT THE ZLB
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES GLOBAL IMBALANCES AND CURRENCY WARS AT THE ZLB
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NBER 工作论文系列：全球失衡和 ZLB 的货币战争
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Farhi
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文献类型：
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作者：
Ricardo J. Caballero;E. Farhi
本文探讨了在资本市场一体化但异质性和名义刚性的世界中极低均衡实际利率的后果。在此背景下，我们得出了五个主要结果：（i）经历流动性陷阱的经济体通过经常账户盈余将其他经济体拉入类似的境地； (ii) 储备货币往往会在全球流动性陷阱中承担不成比例的份额|这种现象我们称之为“储备货币悖论”； (iii) 虽然更大的价格和工资灵活性加剧了通货紧缩的全球流动性陷阱的风险，但经济衰退首当其冲的是更加僵化的经济体； (iv) 以邻为壑的汇率贬值以牺牲其他国家的利益为代价刺激行动国（零和）； (v) 安全的公共债务发行、直升机撒钱以及任何国家政府支出的增加对所有国家来说都是扩张性的（正和）。我们利用这些结果来揭示自全球金融危机爆发以来全球失衡、利率和汇率的演变。 Ricardo J. Caballero 经济系，E52-528 MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139 和 NBER caball@mit.edu Emmanuel Farhi 哈佛大学经济系 Littauer Center Cambridge, MA 02138 和 NBER emmanuel.farhi@gmail.com Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas 经济系 加州大学伯克利分校 530 Evans Hall #3880 Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 和 CEPR 以及 NBER pog@econ.berkeley.edu
This paper explores the consequences of extremely low equilibrium real interest rates in a world with integrated but heterogenous capital markets and nominal rigidities. In this context, we establish five main results: (i) Economies experiencing liquidity traps pull others into a similar situation by running current account surpluses; (ii) Reserve currencies have a tendency to bear a disproportionate share of the global liquidity trap|a phenomenon we dub the “reserve currency paradox”; (iii) While more price and wage flexibility exacerbates the risk of a deflationary global liquidity trap, it is the more rigid economies that bear the brunt of the recession; (iv) Beggar-thyneighbor exchange rate devaluations provide stimulus to the undertaking country at the expense of other countries (zero-sum); and (v) Safe public debt issuances, helicopter drops of money, and increases in government spending in any country are expansionary for all countries (positivesum). We use these results to shed light on the evolution of global imbalances, interest rates, and exchange rates since the beginning of the global financial crisis. Ricardo J. Caballero Department of Economics, E52-528 MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139 and NBER caball@mit.edu Emmanuel Farhi Harvard University Department of Economics Littauer Center Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER emmanuel.farhi@gmail.com Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley 530 Evans Hall #3880 Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 and CEPR and also NBER pog@econ.berkeley.edu