The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures
The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2
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发表时间：
2020-08-26
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Rinaldo, Andrea
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bertuzzo, Enrico;Mari, Lorenzo;Rinaldo, Andrea
迫切需要重新启动为控制SARS-CoV-2在意大利传播而封锁的社会经济活动，必须辅之以有选择地放松遏制措施的有效方法。在这里，我们采用了一个空间显式模型，适当注意隐性感染的作用，能够：估计持续封锁（基线轨迹）下疫情的预期展开;评估与基线的偏差，如果封锁放松导致疾病传播增加;计算防止疫情死灰复燃所需的隔离工作。有效传播增加40%将导致感染反弹。每天隔离5.5%的高传染性接触者的控制工作证明是必要的，以保持流行曲线在下降的基线轨迹上。最后，我们根据初步分析后获得的流行病学数据进行了事后评估，并估计了在削弱封锁后发生的实际疾病传播。
The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased disease transmission; calculating the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. A 40% increase in effective transmission would yield a rebound of infections. A control effort capable of isolating daily similar to 5.5% of the exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary to maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on the epidemiological data that became available after the initial analysis and estimate the actual disease transmission that occurred after weakening the lockdown.