Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model
Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(02)09964-6
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发表时间：
2002-09-14
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Woodward, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hales, S;de Wet, N;Woodward, A
关于气候变化对病媒传播疾病潜在影响的现有理论模型没有考虑诸如人口增加等社会因素，也没有考虑气候变量之间的相互作用。我们的目的是调查全球气候变化对人类健康的潜在影响，特别是对病媒传播疾病的影响。方法我们在蒸汽压的基础上模拟了登革热的全球分布，这是一种湿度测量。通过将未来气候变化和人口预测纳入我们的模型，我们评估了登革热传播的地理限制的变化，以及面临登革热风险的人数。研究结果表明，目前登革热传播的地理限制可以在长期平均蒸汽压的基础上以89%的准确率建模。1990年，世界人口的近30%（15亿人）生活在估计登革热传播风险大于50%的地区。根据2085年的人口和气候变化预测，我们估计约有50-60亿人（占预计全球人口的50-60%）将面临登革热传播的风险，而如果不发生气候变化，则有35亿人（占人口的35%）面临登革热传播的风险。我们得出的结论是，气候变化可能会增加气候适合登革热传播的土地面积，如果没有其他促成因素发生变化，那么很大一部分人口将面临风险。
Background Existing theoretical models of the potential effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases do not account for social factors such as population increase, or interactions between climate variables. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of global climate change on human health, and in particular, on the transmission of vector-borne diseases.Methods We modelled the reported global distribution of dengue fever on the basis of vapour pressure, which is a measure of humidity. We assessed changes in the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission, and in the number of people at risk of dengue by incorporating future climate change and human population projections into our model.Findings We showed that the current geographical limits of dengue fever transmission can be modelled with 89% accuracy on the basis of long-term average vapour pressure. In 1990, almost 30% of the world population, 1.5 billion people, lived in regions where the estimated risk of dengue transmission was greater than 50%. With population and climate change projections for 2085, we estimate that about 5-6 billion people (50-60% of the projected global population) would be at risk of dengue transmission, compared with 3.5 billion people, or 35% of the population, if climate change did not happen.Interpretation We conclude that climate change is likely to increase the area of land with a climate suitable for dengue fever transmission, and that if no other contributing factors were to change, a large proportion of the human population would then be put at risk.