Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic
Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jet.2021.105293
复制
发表时间：
2021-07-13
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Shimer, Robert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Farboodi, Maryam;Jarosch, Gregor;Shimer, Robert
我们开发了一个定量框架，用于探索个人如何在大流行期间社交活动的效用利益与社交互动带来的内部和外部健康风险之间进行权衡。我们根据外部目标校准模型，然后将其预测与有关社会活动、死亡人数以及 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行的估计有效传染数 R(t) 的每日数据进行比较。虽然自由放任均衡与美国 3 月份在任何正式的居家令之前社会活动的大部分下降是一致的，但最优政策进一步强制实施了立即且高度持久的社会距离。在美国，COVID-19 的预期成本很高，在自由放任均衡下为每人 12,700 美元，在最优政策下为每人 8,100 美元。最优政策通过将成本构成从死亡人数转移到持续的社会距离，从而在很大程度上抑制疫情爆发，从而产生巨大的福利收益。 (c) 2021 Elsevier Inc. 保留所有权利。
We develop a quantitative framework for exploring how individuals trade off the utility benefit of social activity against the internal and external health risks that come with social interactions during a pandemic. We calibrate the model to external targets and then compare its predictions with daily data on social activity, fatalities, and the estimated effective reproduction number R(t) from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. While the laissez-faire equilibrium is consistent with much of the decline in social activity in March in the US before any formal stay-at-home orders, optimal policy further imposes immediate and highly persistent social distancing. The expected cost of COVID-19 in the US is substantial, $12,700 in the laissez-faire equilibrium and $8,100 per person under an optimal policy. Optimal policy generates this large welfare gain by shifting the composition of costs from fatalities to persistent social distancing that largely suppresses the outbreak. (c) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.