A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration -: art. no. L12703
A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration -: art. no. L12703
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DOI：
10.1029/2005gl023209
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发表时间：
2005-06-23
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Thorpe, RB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gregory, JM;Dixon, KW;Thorpe, RB
[ 1]作为耦合模式相互比较项目的一部分，已经对11个不同的气候模式进行了通用设计的集成，以比较大西洋温盐环流（THC）对大气CO2浓度增加引起的随时间变化的气候变化的响应。在140年中，CO2浓度翻了两番，所有模式中的环流强度逐渐下降，下降幅度在10%到50%之间。没有模型显示出快速或完全崩溃，尽管二氧化碳的增加相当迅速，最终浓度很高。在控制气候中具有最强翻转的模型往往显示出最大的THC减少。在所有的模型中，THC减弱是由地表热通量的变化比地表水通量的变化引起的。没有一个模型显示任何地方都在变冷，因为温室效应是主要的。
[ 1] As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, integrations with a common design have been undertaken with eleven different climate models to compare the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation ( THC) to time-dependent climate change caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over 140 years, during which the CO2 concentration quadruples, the circulation strength declines gradually in all models, by between 10 and 50%. No model shows a rapid or complete collapse, despite the fairly rapid increase and high final concentration of CO2. The models having the strongest overturning in the control climate tend to show the largest THC reductions. In all models, the THC weakening is caused more by changes in surface heat flux than by changes in surface water flux. No model shows a cooling anywhere, because the greenhouse warming is dominant.