Understanding uncertainty and reducing vulnerability: lessons from resilience thinking
Understanding uncertainty and reducing vulnerability: lessons from resilience thinking
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-006-9036-7
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发表时间：
2007-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Berkes, Fikret
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berkes, Fikret
脆弱性不仅仅是暴露在危害中，它还存在于经历危害的系统的复原力中。复原力（一个系统吸收自然灾害等经常性干扰以保持基本结构、进程和反馈的能力）对讨论脆弱性很重要，原因有三：（1）它有助于在耦合的人类-环境系统中全面评估危害，（2）它强调系统处理危害、吸收干扰或适应干扰的能力，（3）具有前瞻性，有助于探索应对不确定性和未来变化的政策选择。在人类-环境系统中建立复原力是科普以意外和未知风险为特点的变化的有效途径。似乎有四组因素与建设复原力有关：（1）学会适应变化和不确定性，（2）培养各种类型的生态、社会和政治多样性，以增加选择和减少风险，（3）增加学习和解决问题的知识范围，（4）创造自我组织的机会，包括加强地方机构和建立跨规模的联系和解决问题的网络。
Vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards alone; it also resides in the resilience of the system experiencing the hazard. Resilience (the capacity of a system to absorb recurrent disturbances, such as natural disasters, so as to retain essential structures, processes and feedbacks) is important for the discussion of vulnerability for three reasons: (1) it helps evaluate hazards holistically in coupled human-environment systems, (2) it puts the emphasis on the ability of a system to deal with a hazard, absorbing the disturbance or adapting to it, and (3) it is forward-looking and helps explore policy options for dealing with uncertainty and future change. Building resilience into human-environment systems is an effective way to cope with change characterized by surprises and unknowable risks. There seem to be four clusters of factors relevant to building resilience: (1) learning to live with change and uncertainty, (2) nurturing various types of ecological, social and political diversity for increasing options and reducing risks, (3) increasing the range of knowledge for learning and problem-solving, and (4) creating opportunities for self-organization,including strengthening of local institutions and building cross-scale linkages and problem-solving networks.