Mechanisms and predictability of multiyear ecosystem variability in the North Pacific
Mechanisms and predictability of multiyear ecosystem variability in the North Pacific
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DOI：
10.1002/2015gb005096
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发表时间：
2015-11
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
M. Chikamoto;A. Timmermann;Y. Chikamoto;H. Tokinaga;N. Harada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Chikamoto;A. Timmermann;Y. Chikamoto;H. Tokinaga;N. Harada
阿留申低压的变化为北太平洋提供了涡度、浮力和热通量强迫，这反过来又导致了海洋环流、混合层特征和海冰覆盖的变化。在此过程中，白色噪声的大气特性的动态和动态集成，以产生红噪声海洋光谱。利用社区地球系统模式（1.0.3版），我们研究了北太平洋的地球化学和生态系统的响应。我们发现，海洋动力学变量对关键营养盐和生物生产的趋势产生影响，这导致进一步的红化的海洋地球化学谱，从而导致潜在的可预测性的时间尺度上的2-4年。然而，这种低通滤波并不适用于所有的地球化学变量，并且是区域性的。结果表明，在北太平洋中部的浮游植物生物量调整到更短期的变化与混合层深度的变化，光的可用性，和浮游动物放牧，从而限制了浮游植物异常的可预测性约1年。在北太平洋东部，异常营养盐浓度的缓慢平流导致浮游植物变异的持续时间更长，并增加了长达3年的潜在可预测性。
Aleutian Low variations provide vorticity, buoyancy, and heat‐flux forcing to the North Pacific Ocean, which in turn cause changes in ocean circulation, mixed layer characteristics and sea ice coverage. In this process the white noise atmospheric characteristics are integrated dynamically and thermodynamically to generate red noise ocean spectra. Using the Community Earth System Model (version 1.0.3) we study the resulting biogeochemical and ecosystem responses in the North Pacific. We find that ocean dynamical variables have an impact on the tendencies of key nutrients and biological production, which leads to a further reddening of biogeochemical spectra resulting in potential predictability on time scales of 2–4 years. However, this low‐pass filtering does not apply to all biogeochemical variables and is regionally dependent. It is shown that phytoplankton biomass in the Central North Pacific adjusts to the much shorter‐term variability associated with changes in mixed layer depth, light availability, and zooplankton grazing, thus limiting the predictability of phytoplankton anomalies to about 1 year. In the eastern North Pacific the slow advection of anomalous nutrient concentrations leads to longer persistence of phytoplankton variability and increased potential predictability of up to 3 years.