The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP): a control perspective
The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP): a control perspective
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DOI：
10.1002/asl.387
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Leedal, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jarvis, Andrew;Leedal, David
地球工程模型相互比较项目（GeoMIP）旨在作为一种方法，比较世界气候研究计划（WCRP）耦合模型相互比较项目（CMIP）中建模组之间的一套基准地球工程干预措施。虽然我们同意GeoMIP的目标，本文介绍了如何通过添加一个简单的控制组件，可以扩展目前的实验设计。使用模型预测控制框架，我们表明，这种控制提供了一个自动化的解决方案，在气候模型内的辐射强迫平衡的问题所需的G1和G2 GeoMIP方案。通过自动化该过程，该控制消除了对本指南所建议的试错模型运行迭代的需要。此外，控制允许一些进一步的标准化的实验条件，潜在地使地球工程的副作用的推断更直接。最后，控制提供了一个有趣的模拟地球工程部署所管辖的政策代理下的不确定性的条件下，该技术的有效性。版权所有（c）2012皇家气象学会
The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has been designed as a method to compare a set of benchmark geoengineering interventions across modelling groups within the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). While we agree with the objectives of GeoMIP, this paper describes how the present experimental design could be extended by adding a simple control component. Using a model predictive control framework we show this control provides an automated solution for the problem of balancing radiative forcings within a climate model as required by the G1 and G2 GeoMIP scenarios. By automating this process, the control removes the need for trial-and-error model run iterations as suggested by the present guidelines. In addition, the control allows for some further standardization of the experimental conditions, potentially making inference of the side effects of geoengineering more straightforward. Finally, the control provides an interesting analogue for geoengineering deployment governed by a policy agent acting under conditions of uncertainty over the effectiveness of the technology. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society