Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA modelΔ-Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy
Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA modelΔ-Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jiph.2020.06.019
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Wang, Xihao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang, Qiuying;Wang, Jie;Wang, Xihao
COVID-19 已在世界范围内传播；各种预测模型已被用来预测大流行的发展。中国湖北省从疫情暴发到新增病例为零，经历了一个完整的封城周期。因此，我们为这一时期每天的新增病例和新增死亡病例创建了时间序列 ARIMA 模型。而且，这些模型已在与湖北人口状况相同、处于封锁状态的意大利使用，以预测意大利未来十天的疫情，为未来一些国家的疫情发展提供理论依据。 (C) 2020 作者。由爱思唯尔有限公司代表沙特本阿卜杜勒阿齐兹国王健康科学大学出版。
COVID-19 has spread throughout the world; various forecast models have been used to predict the development of the pandemic. The number of new cases from the outbreak to zero has gone through a complete cycle in Hubei, China, on lockdown over coronavirus. So, we created the time series ARIMA models for new cases and new deaths daily during this period. Moreover, these models have been used in Italy, which has the same population conditions and on lockdown as Hubei, in order to predict the epidemic in Italy in the next ten days and provide a theoretical basis for the development of pandemics in some countries in the future. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences.