Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise
Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-018-0476-5
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发表时间：
2018-09-13
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Brown, Sally
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schuerch, Mark;Spencer, Tom;Brown, Sally
21世纪沿海湿地对海平面上升的反应仍然不确定。全球范围的预测表明，目前沿海湿地面积的20%至90%（分别在低海平面上升和高海平面上升的情况下）将消失，这反过来又将导致生物多样性和高度宝贵的生态系统服务的丧失（1-3）。这些预测不一定考虑到所有基本的地貌（4-7）和社会经济系统反馈（8）。在这里，我们提出了一个综合的全球建模方法，认为沿海湿地的能力，建立垂直沉积物的吸积，和容纳空间，即，垂直和横向空间可供细沉积物积累和被殖民湿地植被。我们使用这种方法来评估全球尺度的变化，沿海湿地面积在全球海平面上升和人类活动的海岸占领在21世纪。根据我们的模拟，我们发现，从全球来看，如果超过37%（我们对目前可容纳空间的上限估计）的沿海湿地有足够的可容纳空间，并且沉积物供应保持在目前的水平，湿地就有可能增加到目前面积的60%，而不是损失。与以前的研究（1-3）不同，我们预测，到2100年，全球沿海湿地面积的损失将在0至30%之间，假设除了目前的水平外没有更多的容纳空间。我们的模拟表明，全球湿地的恢复力主要是由可容纳空间的可用性驱动的，这是强烈的影响，在沿海地区的人为基础设施的建设，这种基础设施预计将在21世纪改变。而不是全球海平面上升的不可避免的后果，我们的研究结果表明，大规模的沿海湿地的损失可能是可以避免的，如果可以通过仔细的自然为基础的适应沿海管理解决方案，创造足够的额外的住宿空间。
The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services(1-3). These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological(4-7) and socio-economic system feedbacks(8). Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies(1-3), we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.