A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol
A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol
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DOI：
10.1111/2041-210x.12857
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Wintle, Bonnie C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hemming, Victoria;Burgman, Mark A.;Wintle, Bonnie C.
专家判断为养护和自然资源管理方面的各种重要应用提供了信息，包括受威胁物种管理、环境影响评估和结构化决策。然而，专家的判断可能容易产生背景偏见。结构化的启发协议减轻了这些偏见，并提高了由此产生的判断的准确性和透明度。尽管如此，在养护和自然资源管理方面征求专家判断的工作基本上仍然是非正式的。我们认为，这可能是由于财政和实际的限制，这是没有解决的许多现有的结构化启发式协议。在本文中，我们主张，结构化的启发式协议时，必须采用专家的判断，以告知科学。为了激励更广泛地采用结构化启发式协议，我们概述了IDEA协议。该协议提高了专家判断的准确性，并包括几个关键步骤，可能是熟悉的许多保护研究人员，如四步启发，和一个修改后的德尔菲程序（调查，讨论，估计和汇总）。它还可以包括远程启发，使结构化的专家判断，在一个适度的预算。IDEA协议最近在科学文献中概述;然而，详细的描述一直缺失。本文件填补了这一重要的空白，清楚地概述了准备和进行启发所需的每一个步骤。虽然本文侧重于保护和自然资源管理的IDEA协议的需要，该协议（和本文所载的建议）适用于广泛的科学领域，证明了其应用于生物安全，工程和政治预测。通过清晰地概述IDEA协议，我们希望结构化协议将得到更广泛的理解和采用，从而在需要专家判断时改善判断并提高透明度。
Expert judgement informs a variety of important applications in conservation and natural resource management, including threatened species management, environmental impact assessment and structured decision-making. However, expert judgements can be prone to contextual biases. Structured elicitation protocols mitigate these biases, and improve the accuracy and transparency of the resulting judgements. Despite this, the elicitation of expert judgement within conservation and natural resource management remains largely informal. We suggest this may be attributed to financial and practical constraints, which are not addressed by many existing structured elicitation protocols. In this paper, we advocate that structured elicitation protocols must be adopted when expert judgements are used to inform science. In order to motivate a wider adoption of structured elicitation protocols, we outline the IDEA protocol. The protocol improves the accuracy of expert judgements and includes several key steps which may be familiar to many conservation researchers, such as the four-step elicitation, and a modified Delphi procedure (Investigate, Discuss, Estimate and Aggregate). It can also incorporate remote elicitation, making structured expert judgement accessible on a modest budget. The IDEA protocol has recently been outlined in the scientific literature; however, a detailed description has been missing. This paper fills that important gap by clearly outlining each of the steps required to prepare for and undertake an elicitation. While this paper focuses on the need for the IDEA protocol within conservation and natural resource management, the protocol (and the advice contained in this paper) is applicable to a broad range of scientific domains, as evidenced by its application to biosecurity, engineering and political forecasting. By clearly outlining the IDEA protocol, we hope that structured protocols will be more widely understood and adopted, resulting in improved judgements and increased transparency when expert judgement is required.