Changes in the activity and tracks of Arctic cyclones
Changes in the activity and tracks of Arctic cyclones
复制标题
北极气旋活动和轨迹的变化
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-010-9893-7
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
J. Jaagus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Sepp;J. Jaagus
本文通过应用 NCEP/NCAR 重新分析创建的气旋数据库来检查进入北极盆地或在北极盆地内形成的气旋的频率和气压的变化。北极盆地被定义为北纬 68° 以北的区域。平均海平面气压 (SLP) 低于 1,000 hPa 的深层气旋与浅层气旋分开进行分析。研究了气旋的第一个、最后一个、最深和最北点的变量变化。根据气旋进入北极地区的北纬 68° 点，将气旋分为多个扇区。本文描述的分析表明，1948年至2002年期间，来袭气旋（即进入北极盆地的气旋）的频率显着增加，但在北极盆地内形成的北极气旋的频率却没有显着增加。进入北极盆地的深层气旋频率以及在盆地内形成的气旋频率明显增加，而北极浅层气旋的频率则减少。与气旋相关的季节参数最显着的变化发生在冬季。深层气旋的年平均海平面气压显着下降，特别是北极深层气旋。白令海峡、阿拉斯加、巴芬海和东西伯利亚地区的气旋来袭频率有所增加。
Changes in the frequency and air pressure of cyclones that enter or are formed within the Arctic basin are herein examined by applying the database of cyclones created using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis. The Arctic basin is defined as the area north of latitude 68° N. Deep cyclones with a mean sea level pressure (SLP) of below 1,000 hPa, were analysed separately from shallow cyclones. Changes in the variables in the first, last, deepest and northernmost points of cyclones were studied. The cyclones were grouped into sectors by using the point on latitude 68° N at which the cyclone entered the Arctic region. The analysis described herein shows that the frequency of incoming cyclones, i.e. those that entered the Arctic basin, increased significantly during the period 1948–2002, but that the frequency of Arctic cyclones formed within the Arctic basin did not. The frequency of deep cyclones that entered the Arctic basin, as well as the frequency of cyclones that formed within it, clearly increased, while the frequency of shallow Arctic cyclones decreased. The most significant changes in the seasonal parameters associated with the cyclones occurred in winter. The mean annual SLP of deep cyclones decreased significantly, particularly for deep Arctic cyclones. The frequency of incoming cyclones showed an increase in the Bering Strait, Alaskan, Baffin Sea, and East Siberian sectors.