Labor Shrinkage and its Driving Forces in China from 1990 to 2015: A Geographical Analysis
Labor Shrinkage and its Driving Forces in China from 1990 to 2015: A Geographical Analysis
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DOI：
10.1007/s12061-021-09414-2
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发表时间：
2021-08-26
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Liu, Shenghe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Zhen;Qi, Honggang;Liu, Shenghe
中国的劳动力变化已经到了一个转折点，劳动力萎缩及其相关问题近年来受到广泛关注。然而，从地理角度研究劳动力萎缩及其驱动力的研究仍然有限。本研究分析了1990 - 2015年全国和各地区范围内劳动力萎缩的趋势和空间差异，并结合人口迁移和人口结构变化等变量，探讨了劳动力萎缩的驱动力。我们发现，在2010年至2015年期间，国家以下一级的劳动力萎缩地区显着增加。我们还发现，他们首先出现在中西部地区，然后逐渐扩大到沿海和东北地区。尽管移民问题仍然重要，但人口结构的巨大变化在解释最近劳动力减少的趋势方面发挥了越来越重要的作用。此外，在不同的地区，劳动力减少的原因也各不相同：中西部地区劳动力减少的主要原因是经济和就业增长滞后，而在沿海地区，劳动力减少的主要原因是青年人口减少和人口老龄化。这些研究结果突出了劳动力萎缩的地理异质性以及区域层面的驱动力，并建议地方政府采取差异化措施来解决劳动力萎缩问题。
Labor change in China has reached a turning point, and labor shrinkage and its related issues have widely attracted attention in recent years. However, studies that examine labor shrinkage and its driving forces from a geographical perspective are still limited. This study analyzed the trends and spatial differences of labor shrinkage at national and various regional scales from 1990 to 2015, and then investigated the driving forces behind these processes by combining the variables of migration and demographic structural change. We found that labor shrinkage areas at the subnational level have increased significantly in the period from 2010 to 2015. We also found that they first emerged in the Central and Western regions, and then gradually expanded to the Coastal and Northeast regions. Although migration still matters, dramatic demographic structural changes have played an increasingly important role in explaining the recent trend of labor shrinkage. Moreover, the driving forces varied in different local contexts: while lagging economic and employment growth have been the main drivers of labor shrinkage in the Central and Western regions, many shrinkage areas in the Coastal region can be linked to the decline of the youth population on the one hand and an aging population on the other hand. These findings highlight the geographic heterogeneity of labor shrinkage as well as the driving forces at regional levels, and they recommend that local governments take differentiated measures to address labor shrinkage.