Actuarial Impacts of Loss Cost Ratio Ratemaking in U.S. Crop Insurance Programs
Actuarial Impacts of Loss Cost Ratio Ratemaking in U.S. Crop Insurance Programs
复制标题
美国农作物保险计划中损失成本率费率制定的精算影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Schnitkey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Woodard;B. Sherrick;G. Schnitkey
这项研究考察了作为美国农作物保险计划基本费率组成部分的损失成本比率(LCR)费率制定方法的精算影响，并确定了当负债趋势时，LCR方法产生无偏见费率所需的具体条件。具体地说，LCR需要恒定的相对收益率风险，导致绝对差异随着时间的推移而增加，以及其他限制性要求，才能产生无偏利率。这些要求针对伊利诺伊州玉米的大型农场级数据集进行了测试。我们的发现表明，在这个高溢价量的市场上，适当使用LCR方法所需的条件被违反了，导致了巨大的隐含利率偏差。随着时间的推移，这个过程不会随着时间的推移而自我修正，因为有时会声称增加了更长的评级期限。提出并论证了一种简单的修正函数。
This study examines the actuarial implications of the loss cost ratio (LCR) ratemaking methodology employed by the Risk Management Agency as a component of base rates for U.S. crop insurance programs, and identifies specific conditions required for the LCR methodology to result in unbiased rates when liabilities trend. Specifically, constant relative yield risk resulting in growing absolute variance through time and other restrictive requirements are required for the LCR to result in unbiased rates. These requirements are tested against a large farm-level data set for Illinois corn. Our findings indicate that the conditions required for appropriate use of the LCR methodology are violated for this high premium volume market, resulting in large implied rate biases. The process does not correct itself through time with the addition of longer rating periods as sometimes claimed. A simple correction function is suggested and demonstrated.