Virological factors that increase the transmissibility of emerging human viruses
Virological factors that increase the transmissibility of emerging human viruses
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1521582113
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发表时间：
2016-04-12
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Holmes, Edward C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Geoghegan, Jemma L.;Senior, Alistair M.;Holmes, Edward C.
早期发现具有流行潜力的病原体对公共卫生至关重要。大多数新出现的感染都会导致死胡同“溢出”事件，其中病原体从动物宿主传播到人类，但无法实现全面流行所需的持续人际传播。因此，确定为什么只有某些病毒感染能够在人类之间有效传播而其他病毒感染却不能，这一点至关重要。我们试图确定哪些生物学特征最能表征那些已实现持续人类传播的病毒。因此，我们编制了一个包含 203 种 RNA 和 DNA 人类病毒的数据库，并使用信息论方法来评估一组关键生物变量中的哪一个是人际传播的最佳预测因子。分析的变量如下：分类学分类；基因组长度、类型和分割；是否有外封套；重组频率；感染持续时间；宿主死亡率；以及病毒是否表现出媒介传播。这一比较分析揭示了多种强烈的关联。特别是，我们确定，宿主死亡率低、建立长期慢性感染、无节段、无包膜、最重要的是不通过载体传播的病毒更有可能在人类之间传播。相比之下，基因组长度、基因组类型和重组频率等变量的预测能力很小。总之，我们已经确定了多种生物学特征，这些特征似乎决定了人际病毒传播的可能性，从而能够对特定类型的病毒是否会成功地在人群中出现进行一般预测。
The early detection of pathogens with epidemic potential is of major importance to public health. Most emerging infections result in dead-end "spillover" events in which a pathogen is transmitted from an animal reservoir to a human but is unable to achieve the sustained human-to-human transmission necessary for a full-blown epidemic. It is therefore critical to determine why only some virus infections are efficiently transmitted among humans whereas others are not. We sought to determine which biological features best characterized those viruses that have achieved sustained human transmission. Accordingly, we compiled a database of 203 RNA and DNA human viruses and used an information theoretic approach to assess which of a set of key biological variables were the best predictors of human-to-human transmission. The variables analyzed were as follows: taxonomic classification; genome length, type, and segmentation; the presence or absence of an outer envelope; recombination frequency; duration of infection; host mortality; and whether or not a virus exhibits vector-borne transmission. This comparative analysis revealed multiple strong associations. In particular, we determined that viruses with low host mortality, that establish long-term chronic infections, and that are nonsegmented, nonenveloped, and, most importantly, not transmitted by vectors were more likely to be transmissible among humans. In contrast, variables including genome length, genome type, and recombination frequency had little predictive power. In sum, we have identified multiple biological features that seemingly determine the likelihood of interhuman viral transmissibility, in turn enabling general predictions of whether viruses of a particular type will successfully emerge in human populations.