Analysis of solid cancer mortality in the Techa River cohort using the two-step clonal expansion model
Analysis of solid cancer mortality in the Techa River cohort using the two-step clonal expansion model
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DOI：
10.1667/rr1157.1
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发表时间：
2008-02-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Jacob, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eidemueller, M.;Ostroumova, E.;Jacob, P.
在这项研究中，分析了俄罗斯南乌拉尔地区特恰河队列的实体癌症死亡数据。20世纪50年代，由于马亚克钚复合体释放出放射性物质，这批人受到了长期的暴露。扩大的特察河队列包括1950年至1960年期间居住在特察河沿岸的29,849人，并于1950年1月1日至1999年12月31日期间进行跟踪。分析是在基于生物学的两阶段克隆扩增(TSCE)模型的框架内进行的。研究发现，在1854例实体癌死亡病例中(不包括18例骨癌病例)，约2.6%可能与辐射暴露有关。在实体癌死亡的平均年龄63岁时，超额相对危险度(ERR)和超额绝对危险度(EAR)分别为0.76(-1)(95%可信区间0.23；1.29)和33.0(10(4)py)(-1)(95%可信区间9.8；52.6)。这些风险估计与早先对同一队列进行的超额相对风险分析是一致的。详细研究了ERR随年龄的变化，并观察到随着年龄的增长，风险增加。此外，对这些数据进行了基因组不稳定的可能迹象的测试，结果发现，这些数据可以同样好地用一个包含基因组不稳定影响的模型来描述。来自TSCE模型的结果表明，老年接受的辐射可能比年轻时接受的辐射具有更强的生物效应。(C)2008年，由辐射研究学会提供。
In this study the solid cancer mortality data in the Techa River Cohort in the Southern Urals region of Russia was analyzed. The cohort received protracted exposure in the 1950s due to the releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak plutonium complex. The Extended Techa River Cohort includes 29,849 people who resided along the Techa River between 1950 and 1960 and were followed from January 1, 1950 through December 31, 1999. The analysis was done within the framework of the biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model. It was found that about 2.6% of the 1854 solid cancer deaths (excluding 18 bone cancer cases) could be related to radiation exposure. At age 63, which is the mean age for solid cancer deaths, the excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) were found to be 0.76 Gy(-1) (95% CI 0.23; 1.29) and 33.0 (10(4) PY Gy)(-1) (95% CI 9.8; 52.6), respectively. These risk estimates are consistent with earlier excess relative risk analyses for the same cohort. The change in the ERR with age was investigated in detail, and an increase in risk with attained age was observed. Furthermore, the data were tested for possible signs of genomic instability, and it was found that the data could be described equally well by a model incorporating effects of genomic instability. Results from the TSCE models indicated that radiation received at older ages might have stronger biological effects than exposure at younger ages. (C) 2008 by Radiation Research Society.