Household Vehicle Type Holdings and Usage: An Application of the Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) Model
Household Vehicle Type Holdings and Usage: An Application of the Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) Model
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.trb.2005.01.003
复制
发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
C. Bhat;S. Sen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Bhat;S. Sen
车辆类型的日益多样化和家庭车辆使用的日益增加对交通拥堵和空气污染产生了严重的政策影响。因此，重要的是要准确预测家庭的车辆持有量以及按车辆类型划分的车辆行驶里程，以预测未来的交通拥堵和移动的源排放水平。本文应用多重离散-连续极值模型分析了家庭对多种车型的持有和使用情况。分析数据来自2000年旧金山弗朗西斯科湾区的调查。模型结果表明，家庭人口，居住地点变量和车辆属性的重要影响，对车辆类型的持有和使用。该模型可用于预测人口、土地利用和运营成本变化对车辆类型持有和使用的影响。在美国家庭人口特征迅速变化的时候，这样的预测很重要。这些预测还可以为积极的土地使用，经济和交通政策的设计提供信息，以减少交通拥堵和空气质量问题的方式影响家庭车辆的持有和使用。
The increasing diversity of vehicle type holdings and the growing usage of vehicles by households have serious policy implications for traffic congestion and air pollution. Consequently, it is important to accurately predict the vehicle holdings of households as well as the vehicle miles of travel by vehicle type to project future traffic congestion and mobile source emission levels. In this paper, we apply a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model to analyze the holdings and use of multiple vehicle types by households. Data for the analysis is drawn from a 2000 San Francisco Bay Area survey. The model results indicate the important effects of household demographics, residence location variables and vehicle attributes on vehicle type holdings and use. The model developed in the paper can be applied to predict the impact of demographic, land use, and operating cost changes on vehicle type holdings and usage. Such predictions are important at a time when the household demographic characteristics are changing rapidly in the United States. The predictions can also inform the design of proactive land-use, economic, and transportation policies to influence household vehicle holdings and usage in a way that reduces traffic congestion and air quality problems.