The Coastline of the Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction
The Coastline of the Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction
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未来的海岸线：预测和预测的一些限制
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Omand
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Omand
政府讨厌惊喜。他们讨厌在突发事件面前不得不掉头，抛弃宝贵的政策。他们甚至更讨厌报纸头条尖叫着“政府打瞌睡”。如果政府不能发现即将出现的麻烦，不能采取行动防止或减轻麻烦，公众就会认为这是一个重大的弱点，是缺乏能力的表现。有些人类活动的性质决定了它们不能被预先知道，比如股票市场的运作，或者极端天气事件和地震等“天灾”的发生。即使在政府及其外交、军事和情报机构密切跟踪的情况下（如国际事务），对不利事态发展的预警也有实际限制。因此，本章简要地探讨了政府对预测和预测国际事务、技术或社会态度方面的发展的现实愿望。
Governments hate surprises. They hate it when they have to perform U-turns and ditch cherished policies in the face of unexpected events. They hate it even more when headlines shriek ‘government caught napping’. An inability by government to spot trouble approaching and to act to prevent or mitigate it is liable to be regarded by the public as a major weakness and a sign of lack of competence. There are some types of human activity that cannot by their nature be known in advance — the workings of stock-markets, or the incidence of ‘acts of God’ such as extreme weather events and earthquakes. Even in circumstances (such as international affairs) that are closely tracked by governments and their diplomatic, military and intelligence establishments, there are practical limits as to how much forewarning should be expected of untoward developments. This chapter therefore sets out briefly to examine what should be a realistic aspiration to forecasting and prediction by governments of developments that they could most benefit from knowing about in advance whether in international affairs, technology or social attitudes.