Japan disaster. Scientific consensus on great quake came too late.
Japan disaster. Scientific consensus on great quake came too late.
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日本灾难。
作者：
D. Normile
一篇不起眼的论文讲述了公元 869 年发生的一场地震摧毁了日本东北部的一座城下町，以及随后引发的海啸淹没了周边地区，现在，这篇论文成为了关于科学发现能够并且应该以多快的速度影响减灾政策的争论的焦点。 3 月 11 日，日本东北部发生里氏 9.0 级地震，几年前，科学界已经开始达成共识，认为类似城岩的事件可能会再次发生。但这一共识并未影响地震风险评估、海啸防备或对福岛第一核电站坚固性的审查。修改地震概率分析的需要远远超出了日本的范围。
An obscure paper about an earthquake in 869 C.E. that destroyed a castle town in northeastern Japan and a subsequent tsunami that inundated the surrounding area is now at the center of a growing debate about how quickly scientific findings can and should influence disaster-mitigation policies. A few years before the magnitude-9.0 Tohoku earthquake struck northeastern Japan on 11 March, a scientific consensus had begun to coalesce around the idea that a Jogan-like event could happen again. But that consensus did not influence seismic risk assessments, tsunami preparedness, or a review of the hardiness of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The need to revise earthquake probability analyses extends far beyond Japan.