Using virtual laboratories for disaster analysis – a case study of Taiwan
Using virtual laboratories for disaster analysis – a case study of Taiwan
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使用虚拟实验室进行灾害分析——以台湾为例
DOI：
10.1080/09535314.2019.1617677
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
M. Lenzen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Futu Faturay;Ya;E. Dietzenbacher;A. Malik;Arne Geschke;M. Lenzen
摘要 台湾由于其地理位置，经常遭受严重的自然灾害（例如地震和台风），导致企业运营严重中断，从而造成巨大的财务损失。此前有关台湾此类自然灾害造成的经济损失的研究并未考虑区域和部门的溢出效应。在这项工作中，我们估计了 1999 年集集地震、2009 年台风莫拉克、2016 年台南地震和 2016 年台风梅吉造成的经济影响。我们在新的TaiwanLab 中做到了这一点，这是一个协作虚拟实验室，能够生成地方多区域投入产出 (MRIO) 表的时间序列，捕获台湾 22 个市县 267 个部门之间的区域间交易。我们确定了易受自然灾害影响的地区的关键经济部门。因此，我们的研究是决策的可靠参考，可以确定区域和部门的优先顺序，以减轻损害、提高弹性和加快恢复计划。
ABSTRACT Due to its geographic location, Taiwan frequently experiences severe natural disasters (for example earthquakes and typhoons) that significantly interrupt business operations and subsequently cause extensive financial losses. Prior work on economic losses resulting from such natural disasters in Taiwan has not considered regional and sectoral spillover effects. In this work, we estimate the economic impacts resulting from the 1999 Chichi earthquake, the 2009 typhoon Morakot, the 2016 Tainan earthquake, and the 2016 typhoon Megi. We do so in the new TaiwanLab, a collaborative virtual laboratory that is capable of generating a time-series of subnational multiregional input–output (MRIO) tables, capturing interregional transactions among 267 sectors across Taiwan’s 22 city-counties. We identify critical economic sectors in regions of high vulnerability to natural disasters. Our research is, thus, a credible reference to decision-making that determines regional and sectoral prioritisation for damage mitigation, improved resiliency, and faster recovery schedules.