Space-Time Extremes in Short-Crested Storm Seas
Space-Time Extremes in Short-Crested Storm Seas
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DOI：
10.1175/jpo-d-11-0179.1
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Fedele, Francesco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fedele, Francesco
本研究发展了一种随机方法来模拟短峰风暴海在空间和时间上的随机场。定义一个空间-时间极值为风暴期间给定海面区域上的最大表面位移，相关的统计特性是通过随机偏移集的欧拉特征理论结合等效功率风暴模型导出的。最后给出了时空极值重现期的解析解。随后，新模型及其预测的相对有效性进行了探讨，通过分析从NOAA浮标42003，位于墨西哥湾，近海那不勒斯，佛罗里达的东部地区检索的波浪数据。结果表明，随着风暴面积的增加，在短峰波条件下，时空极端显着超过显着波高的最可能的海状态，他们可能会发生，他们也不违反斯托克斯米歇型上限波高。
This study develops a stochastic approach to model short-crested stormy seas as random fields both in space and time. Defining a space-time extreme as the largest surface displacement over a given sea surface area during a storm, associated statistical properties are derived by means of the theory of Euler characteristics of random excursion sets in combination with the Equivalent Power Storm model. As a result, an analytical solution for the return period of space-time extremes is given. Subsequently, the relative validity of the new model and its predictions are explored by analyzing wave data retrieved from NOAA buoy 42003, located in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico, offshore Naples, Florida. The results indicate that, as the storm area increases under short-crested wave conditions, space-time extremes noticeably exceed the significant wave height of the most probable sea state in which they likely occur and that they also do not violate Stokes Miche-type upper limits on wave heights.