Seasonally Varying Predation Behavior and Climate Shifts Are Predicted to Affect Predator-Prey Cycles
Seasonally Varying Predation Behavior and Climate Shifts Are Predicted to Affect Predator-Prey Cycles
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季节性变化的捕食行为和气候变化预计会影响捕食者-被捕食者的循环
DOI：
10.1086/688665
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
F. Lutscher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Tyson;F. Lutscher
根据季节性变化的猎物的可用性，一些捕食者物种的功能反应从一个模式特征的通才的专家。目前的理论没有解决这一现象的动态后果。由于季节长度与海拔和纬度密切相关，并预测在未来气候情景下会发生变化，因此在理论模型中包括这一现象似乎对正确预测未来生态系统动态至关重要。我们开发和分析了一个两个赛季的模型，大角猫头鹰（布波virginialis）和雪鞋兔（Lepus americanus）。这些物种形成了一个捕食者-猎物系统，其中捕食模式的通才到专家的转变已经被经验证明。我们研究了夏季长度变化时捕食者-被捕食者模型的定性行为。我们发现，相对较小的夏季长度的变化可以对系统产生深远的影响。特别是，当捕食者在夏季有足够的替代资源可用时，它可以将猎物推向灭绝，可以存在共存的稳定状态，并且可以存在稳定的大振幅极限环与稳定的稳定状态共存。我们的研究结果表明，全球变化对当地生态系统的影响可以由内部系统动力学驱动，并可能产生灾难性的后果。
The functional response of some predator species changes from a pattern characteristic for a generalist to that for a specialist according to seasonally varying prey availability. Current theory does not address the dynamic consequences of this phenomenon. Since season length correlates strongly with altitude and latitude and is predicted to change under future climate scenarios, including this phenomenon in theoretical models seems essential for correct prediction of future ecosystem dynamics. We develop and analyze a two-season model for the great horned owl (Bubo virginialis) and snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus). These species form a predator-prey system in which the generalist to specialist shift in predation pattern has been documented empirically. We study the qualitative behavior of this predator-prey model community as summer season length changes. We find that relatively small changes in summer season length can have a profound impact on the system. In particular, when the predator has sufficient alternative resources available during the summer season, it can drive the prey to extinction, there can be coexisting stable states, and there can be stable large-amplitude limit cycles coexisting with a stable steady state. Our results illustrate that the impacts of global change on local ecosystems can be driven by internal system dynamics and can potentially have catastrophic consequences.