Simulated impacts of climate and land-cover change on soil erosion and implication for the carbon cycle, 1901 to 2100
Simulated impacts of climate and land-cover change on soil erosion and implication for the carbon cycle, 1901 to 2100
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DOI：
10.1029/2007gl029342
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发表时间：
2007-05-10
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Ito, Akihiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ito, Akihiko
[10]采用全球生态系统碳循环模型（Sim-CYCLE）和经验侵蚀模型（RUSLE）研究了气候变化和土地覆盖变化对土壤水分侵蚀碳位移的影响。考虑气候和土地覆盖变化的模拟分两个阶段进行，即1901 - 1990年基于历史数据，1991 - 2100年基于IPCC第四次评估报告中的气候预估。在第一阶段，土壤碳的总侧向位移估计为1.6 +/- 0.1 Pg C y(-1)，具有显著的地理异质性，在退耕还林地区逐渐加剧。在第二阶段，预测的降雨和土地利用变化都影响了许多地区的侵蚀状况。因此，土壤碳位移总量增加了32-57%，表明土壤流失和碳循环进一步扰动的脆弱性增强。
[1] The impacts of climatic change and land-cover change on soil carbon displacement by water erosion were investigated using a global ecosystem carbon cycle model (Sim-CYCLE) and an empirical erosion model (RUSLE). Simulations considering the climate and land-cover changes were performed in two phases, from 1901 to 1990 on the basis of historical data, and from 1991 to 2100 using climate projections in the IPCC Forth Assessment Report. During the first phase, total lateral displacement of soil carbon was estimated to be 1.6 +/- 0.1 Pg C y(-1) with remarkable geographical heterogeneity, and it was gradually intensified in regions where forests were converted into croplands. During the second phase, both projected rainfall and land-use changes affected the erosion regime in many regions. Consequently, the total amount of soil carbon displacement increased by 32-57%, implying an intensified vulnerability to soil loss and further perturbations in the carbon cycle.