Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change
Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change
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DOI：
10.1111/ddi.12898
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发表时间：
2019-05-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Goyal, Surendra P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kanagaraj, Rajapandian;Araujo, Miguel B.;Goyal, Surendra P.
目的气候变化改变水循环，潜在地影响物种的分布。使用物种分布模型集合(SDMS)，我们预测了由于气候变暖和人类压力下气候变异性增加，亚洲象在南亚的分布发生变化。地点：印度和尼泊尔。方法建立包括气候、地形、人类压力和土地利用在内的115个预测变量的综合性地理数据库，分辨率为1 km(2)，并建立大象分布现状数据库。对于变量选择，我们首先根据大象栖息地选择的不同假设建立了14个候选模型。对于每个候选模型，使用几个指标对一系列240个单独的模型进行了评估。使用两个温室气体情景的三个气候和一个土地利用变化数据集，集合SDMS被用来预测未来预测。结果筛选出9个预测变量用于集成SDMS。大象的分布主要是由气候水量平衡的变化(60%)驱动的，其次是温度的变化和人类的干扰。结果表明，到本世纪末，由于气候变化和人类压力的综合影响，目前可用的256,518公里(2)栖息地中，约有41.8%将消失。由于干旱加剧，预计低海拔地区以人类为主的栖息地的栖息地损失将更大，导致大象在喜马拉雅山脉水资源供应较多的山谷寻找高海拔地区的避难所。主要结论气候水分平衡的变化可能对季风气候地区物种分布起到至关重要的推动作用。作为回应，物种会沿着可用水和季节性干旱的梯度向上移动它们的活动范围。在全球变化下保护和管理大象种群应包括设计活动走廊，使大象和其他相关物种能够扩散到更有利的环境。
Aim Climate change alters the water cycle, potentially affecting the distribution of species. Using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we predicted changes in distribution of the Asian elephant in South Asia due to increasing climatic variability under warming climate and human pressures. Location India and Nepal. Methods We compiled a comprehensive geodatabase of 115 predictor variables, which included climatic, topographic, human pressures and land use, at a resolution of 1 km(2), and an extensive database on current distribution of elephants. For variable selection, we first developed 14 candidate models based on different hypotheses on elephant habitat selection. For each candidate model, a series of 240 individual models were evaluated using several metrics. Using three climatic and one land use change datasets for two greenhouse gas scenarios, ensemble SDMs were used to predict future projections. Results Nine predictor variables were selected for ensemble SDMs. Elephant distribution is driven predominantly by changes in climatic water balance (>60%), followed by changes in temperature and human-induced disturbance. The results suggest that around 41.8% of the 256,518 km(2) of habitat available at present will be lost by the end of this century due to combined effects of climate change and human pressure. Projected habitat loss will be higher in human-dominated sites at lower elevations due to intensifying droughts, leading elephants to seek refuge at higher elevations along valleys with greater water availability in the Himalayan Mountains. Main conclusions Changes in climatic water balance could play a crucial role in driving species distributions in regions with monsoonal climates. In response, species would shift their range upwards along gradients of water availability and seasonal droughts. Conservation and management of elephant populations under global change should include design of movement corridors to enable dispersal of the elephant and other associated species to more conducive environments.