Predictability in community dynamics
Predictability in community dynamics
复制标题
群落动态的可预测性
DOI：
10.1111/ele.12736
复制
发表时间：
2017-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Svenning, Jens-Christian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Blonder, Benjamin;Moulton, Derek E.;Svenning, Jens-Christian
群落组成与气候变化之间的耦合跨越了从无滞后到强滞后的梯度。无滞后假说是许多生态生理学模型、相关物种分布模型和气候重建方法的基础。简单的滞后假设在不平衡生态学中已经变得很突出，提出社区遵循固定函数或时间延迟来跟踪气候变化。然而，更复杂的动力学是可能的，并且可能导致记忆效应和交替不稳定状态。我们开发了图形和分析方法来评估这些场景，并表明这些动态甚至可以出现在简单的模型中。总体影响是（1）复杂的群落动态可能很常见，（2）对过去气候变化和群落状态的详细了解通常是必要的，但有时不足以预测群落的未来状态。
The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.