Tourism growth and regional resilience
Tourism growth and regional resilience
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旅游业增长和区域复原力
DOI：
10.1177/1354816616654243
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Rodrigues
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
João Romão;Jo√£o Guerreiro;P. Rodrigues
由于2007年国际金融危机，旅游业发挥重要经济和社会作用的阿尔加维地区旅游需求下降，失业率急剧上升。虽然旅游业活动迅速复苏，但失业率继续上升。本文利用贝叶斯向量自回归模型，考察了旅游活动对区域经济部门结构的影响。结果表明，旅游业的增长并没有自动对其他部门的经济业绩产生预期的积极影响，正如过去二十年来区域发展战略中确定的目标所表示的那样。旅游业的积极影响集中在非贸易商品的生产和建筑部门，导致贸易部门在区域经济中的比重大幅下降，类似于被称为“荷兰病”的去工业化进程。2007年后建筑活动的减少导致区域失业率大幅上升，尽管旅游业增长已恢复到“危机前”水平，表明区域缺乏复原力。
As a consequence of the international financial crisis in 2007, the region of Algarve, where tourism plays an important economic and social role, suffered a decrease in tourism demand, while unemployment increased sharply. Although tourism activities registered a quick recovery, unemployment levels continued to grow. This article examines the impacts of tourism activities on the sectorial structure of the regional economy, using a Bayesian vector autoregressive model. The results reveal that tourism growth did not automatically create the expected positive impacts on the economic performance of the other sectors, as was expressed by the objectives defined in the regional development strategies over the last two decades. The positive impacts of tourism were concentrated in the production of non-tradable goods and the construction sector, leading to a significant reduction of the weight of the tradable sector within the regional economy, similar to a process of deindustrialization described as the ‘Dutch disease’. The decline of construction activities after 2007 has led to a significant increase of regional unemployment, although tourism growth has returned to ‘pre-crisis’ levels, revealing the lack of regional resilience.