Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic
Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic
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DOI：
10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.067
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发表时间：
2006-11-10
期刊：
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Simonsen, Lone
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Viboud, Cecile;Tam, Theresa;Simonsen, Lone
我们目前对流感病毒行为的理解存在重大差距。特别是，目前尚不清楚为什么一些大流行之间的季节与异常高的死亡率影响有关，有时与大流行病相当。在这里，我们比较了异常致命的1951年流感疫情（A/H1N1）在英格兰和威尔士和加拿大的流行病学模式与周围的流行和大流行季节，在整体死亡率的影响和传播。基于对这两个国家的生命统计和发病率流行曲线的统计和数学分析，我们表明，与1957年和1968年的流行病相比，1951年的流行病具有更高的死亡率影响和更高的传播性。令人惊讶的是，在被认为是1951年严重流行病“震中”的利物浦，死亡率影响和传播率甚至超过了1918年的大流行。爱思唯尔有限公司出版
There are important gaps in our current understanding of the influenza virus behavior. In particular, it remains unclear why some interpandemic seasons are associated with unusually high mortality impact, sometimes comparable to that of pandernics. Here we compare the epidemiological patterns of the unusually deadly 1951 influenza epidemic (A/H1N1) in England and Wales and Canada with those of surrounding epidemic and pandemic seasons, in terms of overall mortality impact and transmissibility. Based on the statistical and mathematical analysis of vital statistics and morbidity epidemic curves in these two countries, we show that the 1951 epidemic was associated with both higher mortality impact and higher transmissibility than the 1957 and 1968 pandernics. Surprisingly in Liverpool, considered the 'epicenter' of the severe 1951 epidemic, the mortality impact and transmissibility even surpassed the 1918 pandemic. Published by Elsevier Ltd.