Developing Flood Inundation Map Using RRI and SOBEK Models: A Case Study of the Bago River Basin, Myanmar
Developing Flood Inundation Map Using RRI and SOBEK Models: A Case Study of the Bago River Basin, Myanmar
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DOI：
10.20965/jdr.2020.p0277
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发表时间：
2020-03
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
Zin Mar Lar Tin San;Win Win Zin-Win;A. Kawasaki;R. Acierto;T. Oo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zin Mar Lar Tin San;Win Win Zin-Win;A. Kawasaki;R. Acierto;T. Oo
缅甸勃固河流域洪水泛滥。为了开发洪水预报系统，需要绘制勃固河流域的洪水图。本研究应用降雨-径流-洪水（RRI）模型和 SOBEK 模型来模拟洪水流量和洪水，以确定最适合在用户友好性、成本、输出类型以及模拟与观测数据之间的相关性方面分析研究流域的模型。在本研究中，使用勃固站测量的流量数据，选择了五次洪水事件来校准和验证模型。纳什-萨特克利夫效率（ENS）和决定系数（R2）用于评估模型的性能。模拟的洪水淹没区域通过卫星图像进行了验证。通过比较，SOBEK模型比RRI模型更加准确，并且模拟和观测的放电密切相关。然而，当考虑到计算时间和成本时，RRI模型更可取，因为它更快并且免费。对于勃固河流域，RRI 模型可以有效地近乎实时地预测潜在洪水持续时间和淹没面积，而 SOBEK 模型则可用于洪泛区管理。本研究表明，RRI 和 SOBEK 模型适用于缅甸任何与勃固河流域类似的流域。
The Bago River Basin in Myanmar is highly flood-prone. To develop a flood forecasting system, an inundation map of the Bago River Basin is required. This study applied the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model and SOBEK model to simulate flood discharges and inundation to determine the model most suitable for analysis of the study basin in terms of user friendliness, cost, type of output, and correlation between simulated and observed data. In this study, five flood events were selected to calibrate and validate the models, using discharge data measured at Bago station. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. The simulated flood inundation area was validated with satellite images. According to the comparison, the SOBEK model is more accurate than the RRI model, and the simulated and observed discharges are closely related. However, when the calculation time and cost are included in the consideration, the RRI model is preferable, as it is faster and freely available. For the Bago River Basin, the RRI model is efficient in predicting the potential flood duration and areas of inundation in near-real time, whereas the SOBEK model is useful for floodplain management. This study shows that the RRI and SOBEK models are applicable to any basin in Myanmar that is similar to the Bago River Basin.