Estimation of Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities: Application to New York City and Other Coastal Locations
Estimation of Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities: Application to New York City and Other Coastal Locations
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飓风风速概率的估计：适用于纽约市和其他沿海地区
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Simiu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Yeo;N. Lin;E. Simiu
摘要介绍了一种利用各种平均重复间隔(MRI)的最新风速估计信息来估计飓风风速的参数概率模型的方法。例如，这种模型可能需要用来估计飓风风速，而基于性能的结构设计可能需要长时间的磁共振成像，这些结构容易经历非线性行为。首先，将该程序应用于从ASCE7-10风图获得信息的情况，并提供了将其应用于墨西哥湾和大西洋海岸的一些沿海里程碑的例子。接下来，除了使用ASC7-10信息外，还使用2011年核管理委员会(NRC)报告中估计的100万年和1000万年MRI的飓风风速来应用该程序。在此基础上，论证了纽约市的ASCE7-10标准基本风速与其他风速标准中规定的相应风速相比并不保守。
AbstractA procedure is presented for estimating parametric probabilistic models of hurricane wind speeds from existing information on state-of-the-art estimates of wind speeds with various mean recurrence intervals (MRIs). Such models may be needed, for example, for the estimation of hurricane wind speeds with long MRIs required for the performance-based design of structures susceptible of experiencing nonlinear behavior. First, the procedure is applied to the case where that information is obtained from ASCE 7-10 wind maps, and examples are provided of its application to a number of coastal mileposts on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Next, the procedure is applied by using, in addition to the ASCE 7-10 information, hurricane wind speeds with 1,000,000- and 10,000,000-year MRIs estimated in a 2011 Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report. It is then argued that ASCE 7-10 Standard basic wind speeds for New York City are not conservative with respect to their counterparts specified in the standard for othe...