Application of the envelope peaks over threshold (EPOT) method for probabilistic assessment of dynamic stability
Application of the envelope peaks over threshold (EPOT) method for probabilistic assessment of dynamic stability
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DOI：
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.03.006
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发表时间：
2016-07
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
B. Campbell;V. Belenky;V. Pipiras
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Campbell;V. Belenky;V. Pipiras
本文回顾了近三年来包络峰过阈值（EPOT）方法的研究和发展。EPOT方法旨在从时域数值模拟或可能从模型测试中对船舶运动和加速度进行统计外推。为了模拟概率与时间的关系，大滚转角事件必须是独立的，因此可以使用泊松流。该方法利用信号的包络，以确保大的不相干性的独立。最重要的发展是应用广义帕累托分布（GPD）近似尾部，取代以前使用的威布尔分布。本文综述了GPD建模的主要方面，包括其数学依据，拟合分布的参数，并评估的概率和置信区间。
This paper reviews the research and development of the Envelope Peaks over Threshold (EPOT) method that has taken place in the last three years. The EPOT method is intended for the statistical extrapolation of ship motions and accelerations from time-domain numerical simulations, or possibly, from a model test. To model the relationship between probability and time, the large roll angle events must be independent, so Poisson flow can be used. The method uses the envelope of the signal to ensure the independence of large exceedances. The most significant development was application of the generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for approximation of the tail, replacing the previously used Weibull distribution. This paper reviews the main aspects of modeling the GPD, including its mathematical justification, fitting the parameters of the distribution, and evaluating the probability of exceedance and its confidence interval.