Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football
Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.10.002
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发表时间：
2010-07-01
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Arntzen, Halvard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hvattum, Lars Magnus;Arntzen, Halvard
体育博彩市场竞争日益激烈。在测试定量预测模型的新想法时，这些市场很有意义。本文探讨了在足球比赛中，根据球队过去的表现来预测比赛结果的价值。ELO评级系统用于推导协变量，然后用于有序logit回归模型。为了使知情的声明的相对优点的预测相比，从一套六个基准预测方法，经济和统计措施。大规模计算实验的结果。(C)2009年，国际气象预报员协会。Elsevier B.V.出版，保留所有权利。
Sports betting markets are becoming increasingly competitive. These markets are of interest when testing new ideas for quantitative prediction models. This paper examines the value of assigning ratings to teams based on their past performance in order to predict match results in association football. The ELO rating system is used to derive covariates that are then used in ordered logit regression models. In order to make informed statements about the relative merit of the ELO-based predictions compared to those from a set of six benchmark prediction methods, both economic and statistical measures are used. The results of large-scale computational experiments are presented. (C) 2009 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.