High-Resolution Global Climate Simulations with the ECMWF Model in Project Athena: Experimental Design, Model Climate, and Seasonal Forecast Skill
High-Resolution Global Climate Simulations with the ECMWF Model in Project Athena: Experimental Design, Model Climate, and Seasonal Forecast Skill
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-11-00265.1
复制
发表时间：
2012-05-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Hodges, K. I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jung, T.;Miller, M. J.;Hodges, K. I.
对气候水平分辨率的敏感性，人为气候变化，ECMWF模式的季节性预测技术已经作为雅典娜项目的一部分进行了研究，这是一个国际合作组织，旨在检验一种假设，即如果中尺度和次天气大气现象在气候模式中得到更真实的反映，那么在模拟和预测气候方面就可以取得实质性的进展。详细介绍了ECMWF模式（仅大气）。在这里，重点是在北半球冬季的热带和北方半球外热带。雅典娜项目中考虑的ECMWF模型的分辨率为T159（126 km）、T511（39 km）、T1279（16 km）和T2047（10 km）。结果发现，增加水平分辨率可以改善热带降水、热带大气环流、欧洲-大西洋阻塞的发生频率以及北方半球大部分热带外气旋的代表性。所有这些改进都来自于分辨率从T159提高到T511，而分辨率进一步提高到T1279和T2047的变化相对较小，尽管应该注意的是，这个最高分辨率的结果来自于以前未经测试的模型版本。模拟马登-朱利安振荡的问题在所有测试的分辨率下保持不变。有一些证据表明，在热带和北方热带外的北方冬季，将水平分辨率提高到T1279会导致季节预报技能的适度提高。灵敏度实验进行了讨论，这有助于促进更好地了解一些的分辨率依赖ECMWF模型在雅典娜项目。
The sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the climate, anthropogenic climate change, and seasonal predictive skill of the ECMWF model has been studied as part of Project Athena-an international collaboration formed to test the hypothesis that substantial progress in simulating and predicting climate can be achieved if mesoscale and subsynoptic atmospheric phenomena are more realistically represented in climate models.In this study the experiments carried out with the ECMWF model (atmosphere only) are described in detail. Here, the focus is on the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter. The resolutions considered in Project Athena for the ECMWF model are T159 (126 km), T511 (39 km), T1279 (16 km), and T2047 (10 km). It was found that increasing horizontal resolution improves the tropical precipitation, the tropical atmospheric circulation, the frequency of occurrence of Euro-Atlantic blocking, and the representation of extratropical cyclones in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. All of these improvements come from the increase in resolution from T159 to T511 with relatively small changes for further resolution increases to T1279 and T2047, although it should be noted that results from this very highest resolution are from a previously untested model version. Problems in simulating the Madden-Julian oscillation remain unchanged for all resolutions tested. There is some evidence that increasing horizontal resolution to T1279 leads to moderate increases in seasonal forecast skill during boreal winter in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Sensitivity experiments are discussed, which helps to foster a better understanding of some of the resolution dependence found for the ECMWF model in Project Athena.