Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potentials in agriculture, forestry and other land use in Southeast Asia
Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potentials in agriculture, forestry and other land use in Southeast Asia
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东南亚农业、林业和其他土地利用的温室气体排放和减排潜力
DOI：
10.1080/1943815x.2012.701647
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Matsuoka Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hasegawa T.;Matsuoka Y.
本研究旨在估计东南亚国家（印度尼西亚，马来西亚和越南）农业，林业和其他土地利用（AFOLU）的温室气体（GHG）排放量和减缓潜力，直至2030年。我们开发了一个自下而上的模型，称为AFOLUB模型，该模型根据特定技术的详细信息计算温室气体减排量。该模型说明了生产者的农业生产行为和缓解技术选择的利润最大化的结果。使用该模型，我们评估了该行业的缓解措施和具有高缓解潜力的有效技术。因此，2005年，这三个国家农业和土地利用、土地利用的变化和林业的温室气体排放量分别为1.49亿吨二氧化碳当量/年和1.0亿吨二氧化碳当量/年，就“一切照旧”而言，到2030年将分别增加1.7倍和1.8倍。印度尼西亚是其中最大的排放国。我们还发现，到2030年，无悔减排技术预计将减少33 MtCO 2当量/年，相当于2005年农业排放量的22%。在10 USD/tCO 2 eq的减排成本下，通过水稻种植季中排水（MM）、管理土壤高效施肥（HEF）和精料替代粗料（RRC）等措施，每年可减排56 MtCO 2 eq。
This study aims to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potentials in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) in the Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, up to 2030. We developed a bottom-up type model named the AFOLUB Model, which calculates GHG mitigations based on the detailed information of specific technologies. The model illustrates producer's behaviour of agricultural production and mitigation technology selection as a result of profit maximization. Using this model, we evaluated mitigations and effective technologies with high mitigation potentials in the sectors. As a result, GHG emissions in agriculture and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in the three countries were 149 MtCO2eq/year and 1.0 GtCO2eq/year in 2005 and will increase 1.7 and 1.8 times up to 2030 in the BaU case. Indonesia is the largest emission country among them. We also found that no-regret mitigation technologies are expected to reduce 33MtCO2eq/year in 2030, which corresponds to 22% of agricultural emissions at the 2005 level. Under 10USD/tCO2eq of mitigation cost, 56MtCO2eq/year of emissions can be reduced by midseason drainage (MM) in rice cultivation, high efficient fertilizer application (HEF) to managed soils and Replacement of roughage with concentrates (RRC) etc.