Humaninfluence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China
Humaninfluence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China
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人类活动对 2016 年 1 月中国东部破纪录的寒冷事件的影响
DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-17-0095.1
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Simon F. B. Tett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cheng Qian;Jun Wang;Siyan Dong;Hong Yin;Claire Burke;Andrew Ciavarella;Buwen Dong;Nicolas Freychet;Fraser C Lott;Simon F. B. Tett
介绍。 2016年1月21日至25日，我国大部分地区特别是东部地区出现强烈寒潮（图23.1a）。在此事件中，该地区各个站点的日平均气温下降了10℃至18℃（CMA 2017），并打破了许多站点的日最低气温（Tmin）记录（图23.1b）。相对于 1961-90 年正常值，该五重区域（20-44 N，100-124 E）的 Tmin 面积平均距平为− 4 C（− 2.2 标准差）。这是自 1960 年开始现代气象观测以来 1 月 21 日至 25 日有记录的最低气温（图 23.1 c）。据媒体报道（CMA 2017），此次事件期间日平均气温下降超过 6 摄氏度的地区有 11.8 亿人。 1月24日，雪线甚至到达了华南地区的广州和珠江三角洲。这是自 1951 年以来有记录以来的最低纬度。急剧的气温下降、低温以及相关的冰冻雨雪对中国南方的交通、电力供应和公共服务造成了广泛的干扰，并对农业造成了损害（http://mt.sohu.com/20160210/n437184257.shtml；最后访问于 2017 年 3 月 19 日）。近年来，极端寒冷事件在欧亚大陆和北美中纬度地区的许多地区受到广泛关注（例如，Mori et al. 2014；Trenary et al. 2016；Mccusker et al. 2016）。它们是否与北极变暖有关尚存在争议。一些研究表明，温室气体引起的全球和北极变暖可能会增强急流的蜿蜒，从而增加某些地区出现极端寒冷的可能性（Francis和Vavrus，2015），巴伦支海-喀拉海的北极变暖与东亚变冷密切相关（Kug等人，2015），而北极海冰对最近欧亚寒冷冬季增加的强烈影响（Mori等人，2014）。然而，其他研究表明北极变暖不会导致中纬度地区变冷（例如，McCusker et al. 2016；Sun et al. 2016）。考虑到这次寒冷事件对中国的影响，以及北极变暖是否会导致亚洲中纬度寒潮变得更有可能发生的争议，研究人为强迫因素对强度等于或大于2016年1月极端事件的寒冷事件的可能性有多大影响是迫在眉睫的。我们使用英国气象局哈德利中心系统对极端天气和气候事件进行归因（ACE；Christidis et al. 2013；Burke and Stott 2017）和台站观测来研究人为强迫对此类寒冷事件可能性的影响。数据。我们使用了中国国家气象信息中心 744 个国家参考气候和基础气象站 1960-2016 年期间的 Tmin 观测数据。 1960年至2013年更新的温度数据集
Introduction. A strong cold surge occurred during 21–25 January 2016 affecting most areas of China, especially eastern China (Fig. 23.1 a). Daily mean temperatures dropped by up to 10 C–18 C within this event at individual stations in this region (CMA 2017) and broke daily minimum temperature (Tmin) records at many stations (Fig. 23.1 b). The area averaged anomaly of Tmin over the region (20–44 N, 100–124 E) for this pentad was− 4 C (− 2.2 standard deviations) relative to the 1961–90 normal. This was the lowest temperature recorded, for 21–25 January, since modern meteorological observations started in 1960 (Fig. 23.1 c). According to press reports (CMA 2017), 1.18 billion people were in the area where daily mean temperatures fell by more than 6 C within this event. On 24 January, the snowline even reached Guangzhou and the Pearl River Delta in southern China. This was the lowest latitude recorded since 1951. A sharp temperature drop, low temperatures, and associated freezing rain and snow caused widespread disruptions to transport, power supply, and public services, and damage to agriculture in southern China (http://mt. sohu. com/20160210/n437184257. shtml; last accessed 19 March 2017). Cold extremes have been gaining wide attention in many parts of midlatitude Eurasia and North America in recent years (eg, Mori et al. 2014; Trenary et al. 2016; McCusker et al. 2016). It is controversial whether they are related to Arctic warming. Some studies suggested that greenhouse-gas-induced global and Arctic warming may enhance the meandering of the jet stream thus increasing the probability of cold extremes in certain regions (Francis and Vavrus 2015), and that the Arctic warming in the Barents–Kara Seas is closely connected to the cooling in eastern Asia (Kug et al. 2015) and robust Arctic sea–ice influence on recent increases in Eurasian cold winters (Mori et al. 2014). However, other studies have suggested that the Arctic warming does not cause midlatitude cooling (eg, McCusker et al. 2016; Sun et al. 2016). Given the impact of this cold event in China and the controversy whether Asian midlatitude cold surges are becoming more likely as a consequence of Arctic warming, it is compelling to investigate how much anthropogenic forcing agents have affected the probability of cold events with an intensity equal to or larger than the January 2016 extreme event. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme weather and climate events (ACE; Christidis et al. 2013; Burke and Stott 2017) and station observations to investigate the effect of anthropogenic forcings on the likelihood of such a cold event.Data. We used observational data for Tmin from 744 national Reference Climatic and Basic Meteorological Stations from the China National Meteorological Information Centre for the period 1960–2016. From 1960 to 2013, the updated temperature dataset