Influence of spatial correlation of strong ground motion on uncertainty in earthquake loss estimation
Influence of spatial correlation of strong ground motion on uncertainty in earthquake loss estimation
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DOI：
10.1002/eqe.1074
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发表时间：
2011-07
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
V. Sokolov;F. Wenzel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Sokolov;F. Wenzel
除了地震期间可能损失的平均值外，投资组合损失的概率分布函数的参数(如分数和标准差)也非常重要。最近的研究表明，对地面运动变异性的适当处理，特别是地面运动的相关性，对于估计分布式投资组合的地震危险性、损害和损失是至关重要的。在这项研究中，我们比较了地震间相关性和站点间相关性的变化对网络的扩展对象(假设组合)和关键元素(例如桥梁)的地震损失和损失估计的影响。为此目的使用了假想地震方法和包含一套假想建筑和桥梁的投资组合。结果表明，不同类型的关联对损失分布特征和损伤概率的相对影响是不相等的。在某些情况下，当考虑损失分布的中值或生命线至少一个关键要素被破坏的概率时，当使用地面运动的空间相关性时，可以忽略震间相关性中可能的变化。场地间相关函数的形状(即空间相关系数随间隔距离的递减率)在模拟空间相关地动场时似乎也很重要。版权所有©2010 John Wiley&Sons，Ltd.
In addition to the mean values of possible loss during an earthquake, parameters of the probability distribution function for the loss to a portfolio (e.g. fractiles and standard deviation) are very important. Recent studies have shown that the proper treatment of ground‐motion variability and, particularly, the correlation of ground motion are essential for the estimation of the seismic hazard, damage and loss for distributed portfolios. In this study, we compared the effects of variations in the between‐earthquake correlation and in the site‐to‐site correlation on seismic loss and damage estimations for the extended objects (hypothetical portfolio) and critical elements (e.g. bridges) of a network. A scenario earthquake approach and a portfolio containing a set of hypothetical building and bridges were used for the purpose. We showed that the relative influences of the types of correlation on characteristics of loss distribution and the probability of damage are not equal. In some cases, when the median values of loss distribution or the probability that at least one critical element of a lifeline will be damaged are considered and when the spatial correlation of ground motion is used, the possible variations in the between‐earthquake correlation may be neglected. The shape of the site‐to‐site correlation function (i.e. the rate of decrease of the coefficient of spatial correlation with separation distance) seems also to be important when modelling spatially correlated ground‐motion fields. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.