Estimation of the Occurrence Probability of Extreme Geomagnetic Storms by Applying Extreme Value Theory to Aa Index
Estimation of the Occurrence Probability of Extreme Geomagnetic Storms by Applying Extreme Value Theory to Aa Index
复制标题
应用aa指数极值理论估算极端地磁暴发生概率
DOI：
10.1029/2019ja026947
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Wan, Weixing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Si;Chai, Lihui;Wan, Weixing
本文将极值理论应用于地磁活动Aa指数，估计了极端磁暴的发生概率。Aa指数具有172年的观测时间跨度，比其他地磁指数长得多，更适合于分析罕见的极端磁暴。本文采用两种新的极值理论方法--块极大值法和峰值过阈值法，发现1989年3月发生的特大磁暴可能每世纪发生一次。这一结果意味着我们应该更加关注这种可能导致空间天气灾害的极端磁暴。
In this work, the occurrence probability of extreme geomagnetic storms is estimated by applying extreme value theory to the geomagnetic activity Aa index. The Aa index has 172 years observation time span, which is much longer than other geomagnetic indices, and thus is more suitable for analysis for rarely occurred extreme geomagnetic storms. We use two newly developed extreme value theory methods, block maxima method and peak over threshold, and find that the extreme geomagnetic storm that happened in March 1989 may happen once per century. This result implies that we should pay more attention to such extreme geomagnetic storms that can cause space weather hazards.