Chronic wasting disease in mule deer: disease dynamics and control
Chronic wasting disease in mule deer: disease dynamics and control
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DOI：
10.2307/3802899
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发表时间：
2001-04-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Miller, MW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gross, JE;Miller, MW
我们开发了一种机制模型来模拟长耳鹿 (Odocoileus hemionus) 种群中慢性消耗性疾病 (CWD) 的动态。该模型预测了特定年龄的疾病动态、人口规模的变化以及控制策略的效果。我们估计了科罗拉多州感染和未感染黑尾鹿的参数前沿观察结果。我们使用蒙特卡罗技术来评估可能的反应。 CWD 流行病的模拟非常不稳定。当传播率较低时，预计人群中疾病也不会持续，但当使用更现实的传播率时，CWD 消除了人群。我们未能在模拟黑尾鹿种群中实现 CWD 的稳定共存。即使 CWD 患病率较低，也会因人均生产减少和人口密度下降的综合影响而减少潜在收成，人群中 CWD 患病率的变化对传播率高度敏感，小幅下降会导致患病率增加的明显抑制。模拟选择性扑杀计划揭示了在 CWD 患病率较低时启动控制的重要性（
We developed a mechanistic model to simulate dynamics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations. The model projected age-specific disease dynamics, changes in population size, and effects of control strategies. We estimated parameters front observations of infected and uninfected mule deer in Colorado. We used Monte Carlo techniques to evaluate likely responses. Simulations of CWD epidemics were highly unstable. Disease was nor sustained in projected populations when transmission rates were low, but CWD eliminated populations when more realistic transmission rates were used. We failed to produce stable coexistence of CWD in simulated mule deer populations. Even low CWD prevalence reduced potential harvest via combined effects of diminished per-capita production and decreased population density, Changes in CWD prevalence within populations were highly sensitive to transmission rate, and small decreases resulted in noticeable damping of prevalence increases. Simulated selective culling programs revealed the importance of initiating control while CWD prevalence was low (