Reconstructing Terrestrial Paleoclimates: A Comparison of the Co‐Existence Approach, Bayesian and Probability Reconstruction Techniques Using the UK Neogene
Reconstructing Terrestrial Paleoclimates: A Comparison of the Co‐Existence Approach, Bayesian and Probability Reconstruction Techniques Using the UK Neogene
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DOI：
10.1029/2021pa004358
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发表时间：
2022-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
M. E. Gibson;J. McCoy;J. O'Keefe;N. N. Nuñez Otaño-N.;S. Warny;M. Pound
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. E. Gibson;J. McCoy;J. O'Keefe;N. N. Nuñez Otaño-N.;S. Warny;M. Pound
英国新近纪沉积物的理想位置是了解水文动力学和大气环流的早期发展，导致了现代欧洲西北部的海洋气候。英国的陆上新近纪含油气矿床仅限于安格尔西岛（中中新世）Trwyn y Parc的溶液管填充物、德比郡（Serravallian‐Tortonian）的Reinington地层以及英格兰东南部的Coralline Crag地层（最晚的Zanclean‐最早的Piacenzian）和Red Crag地层（Piacenzian‐Gelasian）。这些地区的孢粉植物群可用于提供沉积时气候的快照，然而，基于古植物学的重建通常缺乏对错误的估计。因此，我们提出了两种陆地气候重建技术的第一个第四纪前应用：CREST（气候重建软件）和CRACLE（使用共存似然估计的气候重建分析），分别使用贝叶斯和似然估计概率来生成新的古气候重建，并将其与英国和欧洲大陆的共存方法重建进行比较。我们的研究表明，在整个新近纪，平均年温度（MAT）下降了3°-6 ° C，平均年降水量（MAP）下降了480-600 mm，降水季节性大约减半。CREST和CRACLE重建与协同方法重叠，并且具有提供不确定性而不是范围的优势。英国的气候似乎比欧洲大陆更温和、更湿润、季节性更少。这可能是由于大西洋和北海的缓冲作用改善了英国新近纪气候，尽管大气和海洋环流发生了区域和全球变化。
Neogene sediments in the UK are ideally situated for understanding the early development of hydrological dynamics and atmospheric circulation that led to the modern oceanic climate of northwest Europe. Onshore Neogene fossiliferous deposits in the UK are limited to the solution pipe fills at Trwyn y Parc in Anglesey (Middle Miocene), the Brassington Formation of Derbyshire (Serravallian‐Tortonian), and the Coralline Crag Formation (latest Zanclean‐earliest Piacenzian) and Red Crag Formation (Piacenzian‐Gelasian) in southeast England. Palynoflora from these localities can be used to provide snapshots into the climate at the time of deposition, however, palaeobotanical‐based reconstructions are typically lacking in their poor estimation of error. Therefore, we present the first pre‐Quaternary application of two terrestrial climate reconstruction techniques: CREST (Climate Reconstruction SofTware) and CRACLE (Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation), that use Bayesian and likelihood estimation probability respectively to generate a new palaeoclimate reconstruction, and compare this to Co‐existence Approach reconstructions from the UK and continental Europe. Our study shows how Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) declines by 3°–6°C, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) declines by 480–600 mm and Precipitation Seasonality approximately halves throughout the Neogene. CREST and CRACLE reconstructions overlap with the Co‐exisence Approach and have the advantage of providing uncertainty, rather than ranges. The UK appears to have had a milder, wetter, and less seasonal climate than continental Europe. This is likely due to the buffering effects of the Atlantic Ocean and North Sea ameliorating the UK Neogene climate despite regional and global changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation.