Non-Gaussian power grid frequency fluctuations characterized by Levy-stable laws and superstatistics
Non-Gaussian power grid frequency fluctuations characterized by Levy-stable laws and superstatistics
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DOI：
10.1038/s41560-017-0058-z
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
56.7
通讯作者：
Timme, Marc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schaefer, Benjamin;Beck, Christian;Timme, Marc
多种类型的波动影响电网的整体动态，从而挑战其稳健运行。波动是由动态变化的需求、能源交易和可再生能源上网份额不断增加等不同过程造成的。在这里，我们分析了电网频率波动的动力学和统计学原理。考虑到一系列电网的频率时间序列，包括在北美，日本和欧洲的电网，我们发现一个强烈的偏离高斯最好描述为列维稳定和q-高斯分布。我们提出了一个粗略的框架来分析任意噪声分布的影响，以及一个超统计方法，系统地解释重尾和偏斜分布。我们认为能源交易对当今的频率波动和电网的有效阻尼有很大的贡献，作为控制因素，可以降低波动风险，对小电网有更大的影响。
Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading and an increasing share of renewable power feed-in. Here we analyse principles underlying the dynamics and statistics of power grid frequency fluctuations. Considering frequency time series for a range of power grids, including grids in North America, Japan and Europe, we find a strong deviation from Gaussianity best described as Levy-stable and q-Gaussian distributions. We present a coarse framework to analytically characterize the impact of arbitrary noise distributions, as well as a superstatistical approach that systematically interprets heavy tails and skewed distributions. We identify energy trading as a substantial contribution to today's frequency fluctuations and effective damping of the grid as a controlling factor enabling reduction of fluctuation risks, with enhanced effects for small power grids.