Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk?
Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk?
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DOI：
10.1029/2010gl043898
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发表时间：
2010-09-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Brown, Simon J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clark, Robin T.;Murphy, James M.;Brown, Simon J.
气候变化缓解目标常常用全球平均气温年平均升幅来描述。然而，如果公众要对这些目标的后果有一个良好的认识，就需要对这些目标造成的影响进行当地解释。一些最大的影响可能来自极端事件的变化，例如热浪和洪水。本文使用一套新的、目前独一无二的物理上可信的气候模拟来估计未来与特定全球变暖目标相一致的区域极端高温变化。我们发现，给出全球平均气温升高2.0+/-0.5摄氏度的集合成员的子集显示了区域极端温度的广泛变化。例如，对于这一目标，欧洲、北美和亚洲大部分地区的极端单日高温事件的变化范围在2至6摄氏度之间。森林粗糙度长度、植被根部深度和边界层云的模型表示的合理变化对世界不同地区发现的变化的传播做出了最大的个体贡献。然而，广泛的过程导致了区域变化的不确定性，特别是通过它们对土壤水分模拟的直接或间接影响。引用：克拉克、R.T.、J.M.Murphy和S.J.Brown(2010)，全球变暖目标是否限制了热浪风险？，地球物理。莱特，37，L17703，DOI：10.1029/2010GL043898。
Climate change mitigation targets are often described in terms of annually averaged global mean temperature increases. However local interpretation of impacts resulting from these targets are required if the public is to have a sound appreciation of their consequences. Some of the largest impacts are likely to arise from changes in extreme events, for example heatwaves and floods. This article estimates future regional heat extreme changes consistent with specific global warming targets, using a new and presently unique ensemble of physically plausible climate simulations. We find that a subset of ensemble members giving globally averaged temperature increases of 2.0 +/- 0.5 degrees C shows a wide range of changes in regional temperature extremes. For example, changes in extreme single-day hot events range between 2 and 6 degrees C for large parts of Europe, North America and Asia for this target. Plausible variations in the model representation of forest roughness length, vegetation root depth and boundary layer cloud make the largest individual contributions to the spread of changes found in different parts of the world. However, a wide range of processes contribute to the uncertainties in the regional changes, particularly through their direct or indirect influences on the simulation of soil moisture. Citation: Clark, R. T., J. M. Murphy, and S. J. Brown (2010), Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L17703, doi: 10.1029/2010GL043898.