Projections on the number of individuals with atrial fibrillation in the European Union, from 2000 to 2060
Projections on the number of individuals with atrial fibrillation in the European Union, from 2000 to 2060
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DOI：
10.1093/eurheartj/eht280
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发表时间：
2013-09-01
影响因子：
39.3
通讯作者：
Heeringa, Jan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Krijthe, Bouwe P.;Kunst, Anton;Heeringa, Jan
由于房颤（AF）与心脑血管并发症的风险增加有关，对房颤患者数量的估计与医疗保健计划有关。我们的目标是从2000年到2060年预测荷兰和欧盟的房颤患者数量。方法和结果从前瞻性社区鹿特丹研究中获得年龄和性别特异性房颤患病率估计。荷兰和欧洲联盟的人口预测是从欧洲联盟统计处获得的。在55-59岁年龄组中，男性AF患病率为1.3% (95% CI: 0.4-3.6%)，女性为1.7% （95% CI: 0.7-4.0%）。在85岁以上人群中，男性AF患病率增加到24.2% (95% CI: 18.5-30.7%)，女性AF患病率增加到16.1% （95% CI: 13.1-19.4%）。这种年龄和性别特异性患病率在随访期间保持稳定。此外，我们估计在欧盟，2010年有880万55岁以上的成年人患有房颤（95% CI: 650 - 1230万）。我们预计，如果特定年龄和性别的患病率保持稳定，到2060年这一数字将翻一番，达到1790万（95% CI: 1360 - 2370万）。我们估计，从2010年到2060年，欧盟55岁及以上的房颤患者数量将增加一倍以上。由于房颤与显著的发病率和死亡率相关，房颤患者数量的增加可能对公共卫生产生重大影响。
Aims Since atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, estimations on the number of individuals with AF are relevant to healthcare planning. We aimed to project the number of individuals with AF in the Netherlands and in the European Union from 2000 to 2060.Methods and results Age-and sex-specific AF prevalence estimates were obtained from the prospective community-based Rotterdam Study. Population projections for the Netherlands and the European Union were obtained from the European Union's statistics office. In the age stratum of 55-59 years, the prevalence of AF was 1.3% in men (95% CI: 0.4-3.6%) and 1.7% in women (95% CI: 0.7-4.0%). The prevalence of AF increased to 24.2% in men (95% CI: 18.5-30.7%), and 16.1% in women (95% CI: 13.1-19.4%), for those >85 years of age. This age-and sex-specific prevalence remained stable during the years of follow-up. Furthermore, we estimate that in the European Union, 8.8 million adults over 55 years had AF in 2010 (95% CI: 6.5-12.3 million). We project that this number will double by 2060 to 17.9 million (95% CI: 13.6-23.7 million) if the age-and sex-specific prevalence remains stable.Conclusion We estimate that from 2010 to 2060, the number of adults 55 years and over with AF in the European Union will more than double. As AF is associated with significant morbidities and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF may have major public health implications.