Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge
Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge
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DOI：
10.1029/2008gl035258
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发表时间：
2008-10-22
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lucht, Wolfgang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gerten, Dieter;Rost, Stefanie;Lucht, Wolfgang
应用全球植被和水文模型（LPJmL）量化降水、温度、大气CO2含量、土地利用和灌溉变化对20世纪全球河流流量趋势的贡献(Q)。与观测结果一致，Q值在非洲、中亚/南亚和东南欧部分地区下降，特别是在北美和西亚部分地区增加。基于CRU TS2.1气体学，1901-2002年全球总Q值上升(趋势，30.8 km(3) a(-2)，等于7.7%)，主要是由于降水增加(个别影响，+ 24.7 km（3) a(-2)）。全球变暖（-3.1）、二氧化碳上升（+ 4.4）、土地覆盖变化（+ 5.9）和灌溉（-1.1）也有明显的影响。然而，趋势的符号和幅度表现出明显的年代际变化，并且在降水强迫数据集之间存在差异。由于这些和其他Q驱动因素的近期趋势主要是人为的，我们得出结论，人类对全球水循环的影响越来越大。引用本文：Gerten， D.， S. Rost， W. von Bloh和W. Lucht(2008)，《20世纪全球河流流量变化的原因》，地球物理。卷。， 35, L20405, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035258。
A global vegetation and hydrology model (LPJmL) was applied to quantify the contributions of changing precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 content, land use and irrigation to worldwide trends in 20th century river discharge ( Q). Consistently with observations, Q decreased in parts of Africa, central/southern Asia and south-eastern Europe, and increased especially in parts of North America and western Asia. Based on the CRU TS2.1 climatology, total global Q rose over 1901-2002 ( trend, 30.8 km(3) a(-2), equaling 7.7%), due primarily to increasing precipitation (individual effect, + 24.7 km(3) a(-2)). Global warming (-3.1), rising CO2 (+ 4.4), land cover changes (+ 5.9) and irrigation (-1.1) also had discernible effects. However, sign and magnitude of trends exhibited pronounced decadal variability and differed among precipitation forcing datasets. Since recent trends in these and other drivers of Q are mainly anthropogenic, we conclude that humans exert an increasing influence on the global water cycle. Citation: Gerten, D., S. Rost, W. von Bloh, and W. Lucht (2008), Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20405, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035258.