Current and projected global distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi, one of the world's worst plant pathogens
Current and projected global distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi, one of the world's worst plant pathogens
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13492
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发表时间：
2017-04-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Hardy, Giles E. St. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burgess, Treena I.;Scott, John K.;Hardy, Giles E. St. J.
在全球范围内，Phytophthora cinnamomi被列为100种最严重的外来入侵物种之一，需要积极管理以减少影响并防止在园艺和自然生态系统中传播。相反，有些区域被认为适合病原体，但没有观察到疾病。我们开发了一个CLIMEX模型的全球分布P. cinnamomi的病原体的温度和湿度的响应的基础上，并通过将广泛的经验证据的存在和不存在的病原体。CLIMEX模型捕捉到的肉桂疫霉发生的气候适宜区域与所有可用记录一致。通过从模型预测适合的地区无症状植被中收集土壤样本（记录很少）来验证该模型。提取DNA，并通过高通量测序（HTS）确定是否存在肉桂疫霉。虽然使用传统的隔离方法没有检测到，但HTS在澳大利亚东部和塔斯马尼亚州中部的高海拔地区检测到了P.cinnamomi，正如CLIMEX模型所预测的那样。使用澳大利亚西南部的大型数据集进一步支持CLIMEX模型，其中一个地区的正面记录比例与同一地区的生态气候指数值有关。我们首次提供了一个全面的全球地图，目前P. cinnamomi分布，一个改进的CLIMEX模型的分布，并预测到2080年的分布与预测的气候变化。这些信息为更详细的区域规模建模提供了基础，并支持政府进行风险评估，以规划对这种重要的土传植物病原体的管理。
Globally, Phytophthora cinnamomi is listed as one of the 100 worst invasive alien species and active management is required to reduce impact and prevent spread in both horticulture and natural ecosystems. Conversely, there are regions thought to be suitable for the pathogen where no disease is observed. We developed a CLIMEX model for the global distribution of P. cinnamomi based on the pathogen's response to temperature and moisture and by incorporating extensive empirical evidence on the presence and absence of the pathogen. The CLIMEX model captured areas of climatic suitability where P. cinnamomi occurs that is congruent with all available records. The model was validated by the collection of soil samples from asymptomatic vegetation in areas projected to be suitable by the model for which there were few records. DNA was extracted, and the presence or absence of P. cinnamomi was determined by high-throughput sequencing (HTS). While not detected using traditional isolation methods, HTS detected P. cinnamomi at higher elevations in eastern Australia and central Tasmania as projected by the CLIMEX model. Further support for the CLIMEX model was obtained using the large data set from south-west Australia where the proportion of positive records in an area is related to the Ecoclimatic Index value for the same area. We provide for the first time a comprehensive global map of the current P. cinnamomi distribution, an improved CLIMEX model of the distribution, and a projection to 2080 of the distribution with predicted climate change. This information provides the basis for more detailed regional-scale modelling and supports risk assessment for governments to plan management of this important soil-borne plant pathogen.