Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype
Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejca.2014.01.029
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发表时间：
2014-05-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Lunet, Nuno
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferro, Ana;Peleteiro, Barbara;Lunet, Nuno
在过去几十年中，全球大多数国家的胃癌发病率和死亡率大幅下降，但各区域的主要地形图的趋势和分布存在差异。为了监测全球选定国家胃癌死亡率的近期趋势（1980-2011年）并计算短期预测（2015年），我们分析了世界卫生组织提供的死亡率数据。我们还使用五大洲癌症发病率（2003-2007年）的数据分析了贲门癌和非贲门癌的发病率。在最近的日历期间，joinpoint回归估计欧盟（EU）和主要欧洲国家以及日本和韩国的年百分比变化（EAPC）约为-3%，北美和主要拉丁美洲国家约为-2%。然而，在美利坚合众国（美国）、欧盟和世界其他主要国家，欧大理事会的增长率低于往年。对2015年的预测显示，美国和其他一些国家的利率预计将趋于平稳。贲门癌和非贲门胃癌在病例总数中的相对贡献差异很大，在胃癌发病率和死亡率较低的国家，贲门癌的比例通常较高（例如，G.美国、加拿大和丹麦）。尽管全世界的死亡率趋势良好，但在一些国家，死亡率下降的趋势不太明显。仍需控制幽门螺杆菌感染等危险因素，以及提高诊断和管理水平，以进一步减轻胃癌负担。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e. g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.