Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study.
Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study.
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热浪和死亡率：一项多国，多社区研究。
DOI：
10.1289/ehp1026
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发表时间：
2017-08-10
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Tong S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo Y;Gasparrini A;Armstrong BG;Tawatsupa B;Tobias A;Lavigne E;Coelho MSZS;Pan X;Kim H;Hashizume M;Honda Y;Guo YL;Wu CF;Zanobetti A;Schwartz JD;Bell ML;Scortichini M;Michelozzi P;Punnasiri K;Li S;Tian L;Garcia SDO;Seposo X;Overcenco A;Zeka A;Goodman P;Dang TN;Dung DV;Mayvaneh F;Saldiva PHN;Williams G;Tong S
很少有研究在国际范围内研究热浪和死亡率之间的关联。我们的目的是系统地研究热浪对死亡率的影响与国际滞后效应。我们收集了来自18个国家/地区的400个社区的每日温度和死亡率数据，并通过将社区特定的日平均温度、第92.5、95和97.5摄氏度的温度与持续时间、3和4 d相结合来定义12种类型的热浪。我们使用时间序列分析来估计社区特定的热浪死亡率的关系超过0-10天的滞后。然后，我们应用荟萃分析池热浪效应在国家一级的累积和滞后效应的每种类型的热浪定义。在所有国家，所有定义的热浪与死亡率有显著的累积关联，但因社区而异。用于定义热浪的温度阈值越高，热浪与死亡率的关联就越高。然而，热浪持续时间并没有改变影响。热浪与死亡率的相关性表现为急性相关，并持续3和4 d。中冷和中热地区的热浪与死亡率的相关性高于冷和热地区。除巴西、摩尔多瓦和中国台湾外，热浪对所有国家/地区的死亡率均无额外影响。热浪定义的每日平均和最高温度产生类似的热浪死亡率协会，但不是每日最低温度。结果表明，高温造成了巨大的健康负担，连续几天高温的影响类似于如果高温天独立发生的情况。生活在中冷和中热地区的人比生活在寒冷和炎热地区的人对热浪更敏感。日平均温度和最高温度具有相似的能力来定义热浪，而不是最低温度。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026
Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature , 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration , 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition. Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature. Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026