THE POWER OF BIAS IN ECONOMICS RESEARCH
THE POWER OF BIAS IN ECONOMICS RESEARCH
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DOI：
10.1111/ecoj.12461
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Doucouliagos, Hristos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ioannidis, John P. A.;Stanley, T. D.;Doucouliagos, Hristos
我们考察了实证经济学研究可信度的两个关键维度：统计能力和偏差。我们调查了159篇经验经济学文献，这些文献基于6700多项经验研究中报告的64,076个经济参数估计。一半的研究领域有近90%的成果是动力不足的。统计力量的中位数为18%或更低。对那些报告的结果进行简单加权平均(Power&>=80%)就会发现，这些经验经济学文献中近80%的报告效应被夸大了；通常情况下，夸大了两倍，三分之一被夸大了四倍或更多。
We investigate two critical dimensions of the credibility of empirical economics research: statistical power and bias. We survey 159 empirical economics literatures that draw upon 64,076 estimates of economic parameters reported in more than 6,700 empirical studies. Half of the research areas have nearly 90% of their results under-powered. The median statistical power is 18%, or less. A simple weighted average of those reported results that are adequately powered (power >= 80%) reveals that nearly 80% of the reported effects in these empirical economics literatures are exaggerated; typically, by a factor of two and with one-third inflated by a factor of four or more.