Determinants of Coup d’État Events 1970—90: The Role of Property Rights Protection
Determinants of Coup d’État Events 1970—90: The Role of Property Rights Protection
复制标题
1970—90 年政变事件的决定因素：产权保护的作用
DOI：
10.1177/0192512110369572
复制
发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Rollin F. Tusalem
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rollin F. Tusalem
现有的关于政变的政治-经济决定因素的研究没有探讨产权保护在减少其在全球和区域发生的可能性方面的作用。案例研究证实，20世纪70年代以后，发展中国家的军事机构开始代表精英阶级的价值观，这些价值观对国家重新分配财富和没收财产的企图产生了负面反应。到目前为止，还没有实证分析对这些案例的断言进行检验。本文利用1970 - 1990年期间的二元时间序列横截面模型，研究了契约密集货币比率和国际国家风险指南措施（作为产权代理变量）对降低政变可能性的影响。研究结果表明，保护其产权（作为这些措施的一个功能）的发展中国家更有可能降低政变的可能性。在非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲，产权保护对降低政变可能性的影响具有统计学意义。即使对全球模型进行敏感性分析，其中将六年期间的滞后政变事件作为控制变量包括在内，结果也成立。
Existing research on the political-economic determinants of coup d’état events has not explored the role of property rights protection in decreasing the likelihood of their global and regional incidence. Case studies confirm that the military institutions of the developing world began to represent elite class values that reacted adversely to state attempts at the redistribution of wealth and the expropriation of property after the 1970s. Thus far, no empirical analysis has tested the assertions made by these cases. Using Binary Times Series Cross-Section models from the period 1970—90, this article investigates the impact of the Contract Intensive Money ratio and International Country Risk Guide measures, which are tapped as property rights proxy variables, on decreasing the likelihood of a coup. The findings show that developing states that secure their property rights (as a function of these measures) are more likely to experience a decreased likelihood of a coup. The effect of property rights protection on the decreased likelihood of a coup shows statistical significance in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The results hold true even when the global model is subjected to a sensitivity analysis where lagged coup events over a six-year period are included as a control variable.