Value of aggregation in smart grids
Value of aggregation in smart grids
复制标题
智能电网中聚合的价值
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Rajagopal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Sevlian;R. Rajagopal
规划中的智能电网旨在为能源消费者提供多种服务。这些服务中有许多依赖于能源消费者的集合。预测用户群体的能源消耗是这一过程的一个关键方面。本文探讨了不同聚合规模下的电力负荷预测。利用以1小时为间隔的全市能源消耗数据，将标准预测方法应用于该数据。结果表明，在一些理想条件下，预测误差按Θ(1/√N)的规律减小。我们通过实证表明，实际预测误差按Θ(1/Nα)的规律减小，其中α < 0.5。
The projected smart grid intends to deliver a variety of services to energy consumers. Many of these services rely on aggregates of energy consumers. Forecasting energy consumption of groups of users is a crucial aspect of this process. This paper addresses electricity load forecasting on varying scales of aggregation. Using city wide consumption data at 1 hour interval standard forecasting methods are applied to the data. It is shown that under some ideal conditions, forecasting errors decrease on as Θ(1/√N). We show empirically the true forecasting errors decrease as Θ(1/Nα) with α <; 0.5.