The estimation of SARS incubation distribution from serial interval data using a convolution likelihood
The estimation of SARS incubation distribution from serial interval data using a convolution likelihood
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.2123
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发表时间：
2005-08-30
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Ma, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kuk, AYC;Ma, S
SARS的潜伏期是指从感染疾病到出现症状之间的时间。有关潜伏期分布的知识对决定隔离期的长短至关重要，也是模拟SARS传播和控制的重要参数。由于大多数患者感染的确切时间是未知的，因此无法确定潜伏期。可观察到的是连续间隔，即从指示病例出现症状到被指示病例感染的后续病例出现症状的时间。通过构建一个卷积似然序列区间数据的基础上，我们能够估计的孵化分布，这是假设为Weibull，并给出了理由，以支持这种选择比其他分布。该方法适用于新加坡卫生部提供的数据，结果证明选择10天隔离期是合理的。使用卷积似然方法获得的间接估计值通过与直接从患者子集获得的直接估计值进行比较来验证，其中可以确定患者的孵育时间。尽管其名称，拟议的间接估计实际上是更精确的直接估计，因为连续的时间间隔数据记录几乎所有的患者，而确切的孵育时间可以确定只有一个小的子集。通过使用组合数据可以获得甚至更有效的估计，但改进并不显著。版权所有（C）2005约翰威利父子有限公司
The incubation period of SARS is the time between infection of disease and onset of symptoms. Knowledge about the distribution of incubation times is crucial in determining the length of quarantine period and is an important parameter in modelling the spread and control of SARS. As the exact time of infection is unknown for most patients, the incubation time cannot be determined. What is observable is the serial interval which is the time from the onset of symptoms in an index case to the onset of symptoms in a subsequent case infected by the index case. By constructing a convolution likelihood based on the serial interval data, we are able to estimate the incubation distribution which is assumed to be Weibull, and justifications are given to support this choice over other distributions. The method is applied to data provided by the Ministry of Health of Singapore and the results justify the choice of a ten-day quarantine period. The indirect estimate obtained using the method of convolution likelihood is validated by means of comparison with a direct estimate obtained directly from a subset of patients for whom the incubation time can be ascertained. Despite its name, the proposed indirect estimate is actually more precise than the direct estimate because serial interval data are recorded for almost all patients, whereas exact incubation times can be determined for only a small subset. It is possible to obtain an even more efficient estimate by using the combined data but the improvement is not substantial. Copyright (C) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.